Does the Recent 10% Drop Create Opportunity in Global Partners Stock for 2025?

If you’re trying to figure out your next move with Global Partners, you’re definitely not alone. This is a stock that’s seen it all lately, from a 5-year rally of nearly 392% to a choppier path in recent months. In just the last 30 days, Global Partners has slid almost 10%, trimming back what had been a strong, steady ride upward. After all, even with this recent dip, the stock has more than doubled over three years, and it’s still up 3.3% over the past year despite pockets of market volatility.

This shifting sentiment is partly tied to broader market swings and a watchful eye on the energy sector overall. Investors seem to be weighing both the impressive long-term gains and the increased risk that sometimes comes with stocks in this space. As of the most recent close, shares were at $46.45, leaving some readers to wonder if there’s value left, or if the easy money has already been made.

On the valuation front, Global Partners has a score of 2 out of 6 using common undervaluation checks, so while it’s not screamingly cheap, it’s also not priced out of reach for value hunters. This leaves plenty to discuss about how to actually judge whether it’s a worthwhile buy from here. Let’s dig into how analysts and investors typically approach valuation, and why there may be a better, more nuanced way to understand the true worth of the stock by the end of this article.

Global Partners scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Global Partners Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This approach helps investors understand what a business may truly be worth, based on how much cash it is expected to generate going forward.

For Global Partners, the most recent twelve months of Free Cash Flow stands at $73.95 million. Analysts provide concrete cash flow projections for the next several years, with 2027 Free Cash Flow estimated at $129.30 million. After that, Simply Wall St extrapolates further, with ten-year projections reaching $171.84 million by 2035. Each future amount is appropriately discounted back to present value. The 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model is the specific valuation model used.

Using this method, Global Partners’ fair value per share is estimated to be $67.83. This implies the stock is currently trading at about a 31.5% discount to its intrinsic value, given the current share price of $46.45.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Global Partners.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Global Partners is undervalued by 31.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Global Partners Price vs Earnings (PE)

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool for companies like Global Partners that are consistently profitable. It provides a quick snapshot of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings, which is especially useful for assessing the value of established, income-generating businesses in the Oil and Gas sector.

Interpreting the PE ratio isn’t as simple as higher or lower is always better. Growth expectations play a major role. Faster-growing companies often command higher PE ratios, while those with more risk or uncertain prospects might trade at a lower multiple. For Global Partners, the current PE ratio sits at 17.7x. This is higher than the industry average of 13.4x and above the peer group average of 15.3x, suggesting investors are pricing in relatively strong performance or earnings stability compared to many in the sector.

However, Simply Wall St's proprietary “Fair Ratio” offers a more tailored benchmark. It weighs factors such as the company’s earnings growth, profit margins, industry specifics, size, and risk profile to determine what a reasonable PE should be for Global Partners. It clocks in at 16.3x. This approach provides a deeper lens than a plain peer or industry comparison because it is adjusted for the company’s unique situation, helping investors avoid some of the common pitfalls of surface-level valuation judgments.

Comparing the current PE of 17.7x to the Fair Ratio of 16.3x, the difference is modest. This suggests that Global Partners’ stock price, based on earnings, is just slightly above its fair level but not enough to raise major red flags.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Global Partners Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there’s an even better, more practical way to make sense of a company’s value: it’s called building a Narrative. A Narrative is your opportunity to connect the dots between real-world events, your personal view of Global Partners’ future, and what those mean for its numbers. Essentially, you’re putting your story behind the numbers by setting your own assumptions about future revenue, profit margins, and a fair value target, all based on how you see the company’s journey unfolding.

With Narratives, you’re not just reacting to the market’s mood. Instead, you’re creating your own hypothesis that ties the company’s story to a forecast and then to a justified fair value. This tool is quick to pick up and available right now on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share and update their perspectives dynamically as new news or earnings reports arrive.

By comparing your Fair Value to today’s share price, Narratives help you decide if it’s time to buy, hold, or sell, all while remaining agile as the story changes. For example, some Global Partners Narratives see fair value at $53 a share (factoring in revenue growth and margin improvements), while others place it as low as $46 due to concerns about regulatory risks and the energy transition.

Do you think there's more to the story for Global Partners? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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