Is EQT Still Attractive After Its 348% Five Year Surge?

• Wondering if EQT is still a smart buy after its big run over the last few years, or if most of the easy money has already been made? This breakdown is designed to help you decide.
• The stock is down 6.4% over the last week and 2.9% over the last month, but it is still up 20.9% year to date and 27.1% over the past year, building on a 347.8% gain over 5 years.
• Recent moves in EQT have been shaped by shifting natural gas price expectations and ongoing policy debates around U.S. energy infrastructure. These factors affect how investors think about long term cash flows and risk. In addition, continued focus on North American energy security and cleaner gas replacing coal keeps EQT in the spotlight as a key player in this transition.
• Right now, EQT scores a 3/6 valuation check, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in some aspects of its fundamentals. Next, we will unpack what that score really means across different valuation methods before finishing with another way to think about what EQT is actually worth.

EQT delivered 27.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry.

Approach 1: EQT Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting its future free cash flows and then discounting them back to today in dollar terms. For EQT, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve months free cash flow of about $2.13 billion.

Analysts expect EQT’s free cash flow to climb to around $3.86 billion in 2026, with projections peaking near that level before gradually easing to about $2.34 billion by 2035 as growth normalizes. Only the first few years are based on analyst forecasts, with the later years extrapolated from these trends by Simply Wall St.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back, the estimated intrinsic value for EQT is roughly $86.75 per share. At the current share price, this implies the stock is about 34.0% below that estimate, which indicates potential undervaluation if the modeled cash flow path occurs.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests EQT is undervalued by 34.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 905 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for EQT.

Approach 2: EQT Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like EQT, the Price to Earnings (PE) ratio is a practical way to gauge value because it ties the share price directly to the profits each share is generating. In general, faster expected earnings growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher, or more expensive, PE multiple. Slower growth or higher risk typically call for a lower, more conservative multiple.

EQT currently trades on a PE of about 20.07x, above the broader Oil and Gas industry average of roughly 13.59x and also higher than its peer group average of around 16.09x. On the surface, that premium suggests investors are already paying up for EQT’s earnings. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework refines this view by estimating what PE EQT should trade at, given its earnings growth profile, margins, industry positioning, market cap and risk factors. That model points to a Fair Ratio of about 22.39x, which is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the sector because it adjusts for EQT’s specific strengths and risks.

Since the Fair Ratio of 22.39x is comfortably above the current 20.07x, EQT appears modestly cheap on a PE basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your EQT Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to attach your own story about EQT’s future to the numbers like revenue, earnings, margins and ultimately what you think the stock is worth.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St’s Community page lets you spell out how you think key drivers such as long term LNG contracts, AI driven power demand or regulatory risks will shape EQT’s financials. It then automatically links that story to a structured forecast and a Fair Value estimate that you can compare against today’s share price to decide whether it looks like a buy, hold or sell.

Because Narratives are dynamic, they automatically refresh when new information such as earnings releases, balance sheet updates or major news hits the market. This helps your Fair Value view keep pace with reality instead of going stale.

For example, one EQT investor might build a bullish Narrative that leans on rising LNG exports, expanding margins and a Fair Value closer to the most optimistic analyst target near 80 dollars. A more cautious investor could instead focus on decarbonization risk and regulatory pressure and land nearer the 42 dollar bear case. Both perspectives can coexist and evolve as the data changes.

Do you think there's more to the story for EQT? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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