A Look at HF Sinclair (DINO) Valuation Following Analysts’ Upgraded Earnings Forecasts

HF Sinclair (DINO) landed on the radar this week after analysts substantially lifted their consensus earnings forecast for the year. This bump in estimates highlights increased optimism around the company’s ongoing performance and prospects.

See our latest analysis for HF Sinclair.

HF Sinclair’s momentum has clearly picked up, with the stock climbing nearly 14% over the past three months and posting an impressive 49% share price return year to date. Recent analyst upgrades and the move to redeem senior notes have likely fueled this positive sentiment, and the company’s 1-year total shareholder return of 22.7% puts its performance into strong context for both short-term and long-term investors.

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But with HF Sinclair’s share price surging and analysts already boosting their growth forecasts, investors now face a familiar question: is there still value left on the table, or is all the future upside already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Undervalued

With HF Sinclair's fair value estimated at $56.31 versus its last close at $52.35, the narrative prices in more upside ahead. Investors are weighing a scenario of growing earnings and margin expansion as the driving force behind this valuation outlook.

Efficiency initiatives and operational improvements, such as reduced operating expense per throughput barrel, improved refinery reliability, and process optimization, are expected to lower costs and expand net margins going forward.

Read the complete narrative.

Want the inside track on what analysts think will power this outperformance? There is a bold forecast for margin growth and shrinking costs. Transformative operational changes are the linchpin. What else are they betting on for a higher price target? Click to reveal the critical figures and see what sets this narrative apart.

Result: Fair Value of $56.31 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising electric vehicle adoption and persistent renewables challenges could erode demand and slow HF Sinclair’s earnings momentum if these trends accelerate unexpectedly.

Find out about the key risks to this HF Sinclair narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Tells a Different Story

Looking through the lens of the SWS DCF model, there is a contrasting perspective. According to this approach, HF Sinclair is currently trading above its estimate of fair value. This view suggests some of the upside might already be reflected in the market price. Could DCF risk factors tip the scales for future value?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out HF Sinclair for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own HF Sinclair Narrative

If you want to examine the numbers for yourself and develop your own view on where HF Sinclair is headed, you can shape a story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your HF Sinclair research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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