Cenovus Energy Inc.

NYSE:CVE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$28.8b

Cenovus Energy Valuation

Is CVE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CVE ($15.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($40.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVE?

Key metric: As CVE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CVE. This is calculated by dividing CVE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CVE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.9x
EarningsCA$3.70b
Market CapCA$40.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CVE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CVE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.4x
OXY Occidental Petroleum
13.3x8.2%US$47.5b
CVX Chevron
17.4x7.1%US$290.8b
XOM Exxon Mobil
15.6x4.9%US$529.9b
DVN Devon Energy
7.4x-4.7%US$25.9b
CVE Cenovus Energy
10.9x5.0%US$40.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CVE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CVE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
CVE 10.9xIndustry Avg. 11.3xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CVE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.9x
Fair PE Ratio13.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CVE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.62
US$22.52
+44.2%
7.8%US$27.14US$20.00n/a17
Nov ’25US$15.67
US$22.59
+44.2%
7.8%US$27.23US$20.06n/a17
Oct ’25US$17.16
US$24.38
+42.1%
6.6%US$28.17US$21.49n/a18
Sep ’25US$18.54
US$25.29
+36.4%
6.0%US$28.17US$22.24n/a18
Aug ’25US$18.85
US$24.47
+29.8%
5.7%US$27.39US$21.62n/a18
Jul ’25US$19.79
US$24.56
+24.1%
7.0%US$27.74US$21.90n/a18
Jun ’25US$20.82
US$24.58
+18.1%
7.4%US$27.81US$21.95n/a18
May ’25US$20.34
US$24.33
+19.6%
7.6%US$27.62US$21.80n/a18
Apr ’25US$20.11
US$22.87
+13.7%
9.0%US$28.06US$19.93n/a18
Mar ’25US$17.70
US$22.34
+26.2%
8.7%US$25.91US$19.99n/a17
Feb ’25US$16.13
US$22.54
+39.8%
8.2%US$26.12US$20.15n/a17
Jan ’25US$16.65
US$24.10
+44.7%
6.9%US$27.11US$21.08n/a17
Dec ’24US$17.71
US$24.63
+39.1%
6.5%US$27.99US$22.10n/a17
Nov ’24US$19.03
US$23.77
+24.9%
8.7%US$26.82US$19.21US$15.6717
Oct ’24US$20.82
US$23.13
+11.1%
9.2%US$26.68US$19.64US$17.1617
Sep ’24US$20.15
US$22.42
+11.2%
8.3%US$26.64US$19.61US$18.5417
Aug ’24US$18.99
US$22.37
+17.8%
7.6%US$25.79US$20.10US$18.8517
Jul ’24US$16.98
US$22.39
+31.8%
8.4%US$25.67US$19.25US$19.7916
Jun ’24US$16.50
US$22.27
+35.0%
11.3%US$27.95US$18.76US$20.8216
May ’24US$16.46
US$22.74
+38.1%
10.9%US$27.95US$18.76US$20.3417
Apr ’24US$17.46
US$23.71
+35.8%
8.9%US$28.56US$20.14US$20.1117
Mar ’24US$18.61
US$23.90
+28.4%
8.5%US$28.58US$20.15US$17.7017
Feb ’24US$19.25
US$24.55
+27.5%
10.7%US$29.16US$17.20US$16.1318
Jan ’24US$19.41
US$24.32
+25.3%
8.4%US$27.82US$19.04US$16.6518
Dec ’23US$19.65
US$24.84
+26.4%
7.5%US$28.25US$20.81US$17.7117
Nov ’23US$20.51
US$24.39
+18.9%
7.7%US$27.89US$20.55US$19.0317

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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