Is ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips

What Is ConocoPhillips's Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that ConocoPhillips had US$15.2b in debt in June 2023; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$6.82b, its net debt is less, at about US$8.43b.

A Look At ConocoPhillips' Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that ConocoPhillips had liabilities of US$9.55b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$32.5b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$6.82b in cash and US$4.53b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$30.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

ConocoPhillips has a very large market capitalization of US$142.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

ConocoPhillips's net debt is only 0.29 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 37.7 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, ConocoPhillips's EBIT dived 11%, over the last year. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if ConocoPhillips can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, ConocoPhillips recorded free cash flow worth 72% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

ConocoPhillips's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But we must concede we find its EBIT growth rate has the opposite effect. All these things considered, it appears that ConocoPhillips can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example ConocoPhillips has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.