A look at ConocoPhillips’ valuation as Citgo share sale approval strengthens its potential creditor recovery prospects

A U.S. judge’s approval of a $5.9 billion Citgo-related share sale could hand ConocoPhillips a meaningful payout as a major Venezuela linked creditor, potentially tightening up its balance sheet and future cash returns.

See our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips.

The potential windfall from the Citgo share sale comes as ConocoPhillips’ share price, now at $89.29, has delivered a negative year to date share price return. Its five year total shareholder return of 150.48% still underlines strong long term wealth creation, suggesting current weakness may reflect shifting energy sentiment more than a broken equity story.

If this kind of event driven upside interests you, it might also be worth exploring aerospace and defense stocks for other resilient, cash generative names exposed to global geopolitical trends.

With profits still growing modestly and the stock trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, is ConocoPhillips quietly undervalued here, or is the market already factoring in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.9% Undervalued

With ConocoPhillips last closing at $89.29 against a narrative fair value of about $112.91, the valuation lens centers on steady cash generation and disciplined growth.

The company's expanding LNG portfolio and progress on large-scale liquefaction projects (notably in Qatar, Port Arthur, and Willow) are set to capture significant market share from robust global gas demand, especially as natural gas solidifies its role as a "transition fuel"; these projects are expected to drive a substantial free cash flow inflection and topline revenue expansion through 2029.

Read the complete narrative.

To see the math behind that upside, the growth path blends modest top line expectations with a richer margin profile and a punchy future earnings multiple. If you are curious which levers really move that fair value, open the full narrative to unpack the projections behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of $112.91 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside rests on major projects staying on track and oil prices holding up, which leaves the story vulnerable to execution missteps or weaker demand.

Find out about the key risks to this ConocoPhillips narrative.

Build Your Own ConocoPhillips Narrative

If you see the setup differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a fully customized view in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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