Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Arch Resources, Inc. (NYSE:ARCH) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Arch Resources
How Much Debt Does Arch Resources Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Arch Resources had debt of US$174.3m at the end of December 2022, a reduction from US$560.7m over a year. But it also has US$273.1m in cash to offset that, meaning it has US$98.8m net cash.
How Healthy Is Arch Resources' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Arch Resources had liabilities of US$426.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$640.6m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$273.1m and US$255.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$539.2m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Arch Resources has a market capitalization of US$2.51b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Arch Resources also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
Better yet, Arch Resources grew its EBIT by 178% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Arch Resources's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Arch Resources may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent two years, Arch Resources recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Summing Up
While Arch Resources does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$98.8m. And we liked the look of last year's 178% year-on-year EBIT growth. So is Arch Resources's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Arch Resources has 4 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ARCH
Arch Resources
Engages in the production and sale of metallurgical products.
Flawless balance sheet and undervalued.