Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a mediocre week for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE:AESI) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$19.35 in the week since its latest full-year results. Revenues of US$1.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.55, missing estimates by 5.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Atlas Energy Solutions

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Atlas Energy Solutions are now predicting revenues of US$1.27b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 143% to US$1.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.73 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$24.83, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Atlas Energy Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$29.00 and the most bearish at US$22.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Atlas Energy Solutions' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 47% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Atlas Energy Solutions is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Atlas Energy Solutions. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Atlas Energy Solutions going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Atlas Energy Solutions (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.