Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

NYSE:AESI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.8b

Atlas Energy Solutions Valuation

Is AESI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AESI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$14.80
Fair Value
55.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AESI ($22.96) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($14.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AESI is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AESI?

Key metric: As AESI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AESI. This is calculated by dividing AESI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AESI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.1x
EarningsUS$81.28m
Market CapUS$2.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AESI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AESI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.3x
TDW Tidewater
15.9x46.6%US$2.9b
WHD Cactus
21.2x19.8%US$4.8b
OII Oceaneering International
18.5xn/aUS$2.6b
LBRT Liberty Energy
9.5x-7.1%US$3.1b
AESI Atlas Energy Solutions
31.1x53.9%US$2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AESI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.1x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AESI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Energy Services Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NCSM NCS Multistage Holdings
1.7x-107.5%US$73.49m
BASX.Q Basic Energy Services
n/an/aUS$24.00
No more companies available in this PE range
AESI 31.1xIndustry Avg. 15.1xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AESI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.1x) compared to the US Energy Services industry average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AESI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AESI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.1x
Fair PE Ratio23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AESI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AESI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$22.96
US$25.06
+9.1%
9.9%US$29.00US$22.00n/a9
Jan ’26US$22.18
US$23.50
+6.0%
9.0%US$28.00US$19.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$23.57
US$23.32
-1.1%
9.6%US$28.00US$19.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$19.16
US$24.50
+27.9%
7.8%US$28.00US$22.50n/a11
Oct ’25US$21.89
US$26.00
+18.8%
5.2%US$28.00US$24.00n/a11
Sep ’25US$21.09
US$26.00
+23.3%
5.2%US$28.00US$24.00n/a11
Aug ’25US$20.51
US$26.75
+30.4%
6.3%US$30.00US$24.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$20.04
US$27.00
+34.7%
6.2%US$30.00US$24.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$24.22
US$26.82
+10.7%
5.2%US$29.00US$24.00n/a11
May ’25US$21.97
US$25.50
+16.1%
8.6%US$28.00US$20.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$22.64
US$25.20
+11.3%
8.7%US$28.00US$20.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$19.33
US$24.67
+27.6%
9.7%US$28.00US$20.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$17.55
US$23.60
+34.5%
8.5%US$28.00US$20.00US$22.9610
Jan ’25US$17.22
US$24.80
+44.0%
6.5%US$28.00US$23.00US$22.1810
Dec ’24US$17.75
US$24.80
+39.7%
6.5%US$28.00US$23.00US$23.5710
Nov ’24US$18.40
US$25.20
+37.0%
5.8%US$28.00US$23.00US$19.1610
Oct ’24US$22.23
US$25.40
+14.3%
5.9%US$28.00US$23.00US$21.8910
Sep ’24US$22.30
US$25.40
+13.9%
5.9%US$28.00US$23.00US$21.0910
Aug ’24US$21.40
US$24.05
+12.4%
6.6%US$27.00US$21.50US$20.5110
Jul ’24US$17.36
US$24.20
+39.4%
5.8%US$27.00US$22.00US$20.0410
Jun ’24US$16.20
US$24.20
+49.4%
5.8%US$27.00US$22.00US$24.2210
May ’24US$18.17
US$24.30
+33.7%
6.6%US$28.00US$22.00US$21.9710
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
US$25.06
Fair Value
8.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/31 22:53
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Derek PodhaizerBarclays
Eddie KimBarclays
Kurt HalleadBenchmark Company