Atlas Energy Solutions Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Atlas Energy Solutions is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 97.9% and 12.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 98.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 4.2% in 3 years.
Key information
97.9%
Earnings growth rate
98.71%
EPS growth rate
| Energy Services earnings growth | 21.1% |
| Revenue growth rate | 12.5% |
| Future return on equity | 4.15% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 11 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 30
AESI: Execution On Power Contracts And Proppant Stabilization Will Shape Re Rating
Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for Atlas Energy Solutions to $18.00 from $16.00, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple reflected in recent target increases from firms across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Atlas Energy Solutions has centered on a cluster of price target revisions, with several bullish analysts lifting their fair value assumptions and one major firm, Goldman Sachs, adjusting its view while maintaining a cautious rating.
Narrative Update • Apr 16
AESI: Power Projects And Proppant Uncertainty Will Shape A Balanced Outlook
The analyst fair value estimate for Atlas Energy Solutions has increased from $11.35 to $13.77, with analysts citing updated growth and profitability assumptions, a higher anticipated future P/E multiple, and a series of recent price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Atlas Energy Solutions shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings over the past few months.Seeking Alpha • Apr 03
Atlas Energy Solutions: The Shift To Power Production Is In Top Gear (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Atlas Energy Solutions is rated STRONG BUY, driven by a transformative pivot into modular power generation and robust long-term growth prospects. AESI suspended its dividend to fund a $840m capital commitment with Caterpillar, targeting 2 GW of deployable power capacity by 2030. The company’s sand business remains profitable due to cost advantages, but near-term growth is anchored in new power purchase agreements and project execution. Successful execution of the initial 120MW PPA and replication across the 2 GW pipeline could yield $600m–$800m annual FCF, supporting a $50/share long-term target. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 02
AESI: Weak Power Pipeline And 2026 Volume Visibility Will Limit Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price targets for Atlas Energy Solutions, now ranging from $8 to $14. The updated fair value framework remains at $9.00 as they weigh mixed views on power growth prospects, current proppant headwinds, and evolving sector expectations.Narrative Update • Mar 18
AESI: Weak Power Pipeline And 2026 Volume Uncertainty Will Restrain Upside
Atlas Energy Solutions' analyst fair value estimate has shifted to $9 from $8 as analysts weigh mixed price target changes across the Street, including recent revisions in the $8 to $14 range and updated views on growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Atlas Energy Solutions reflects a split view, with some firms lifting price targets while others trim expectations or keep cautious ratings.Narrative Update • Mar 04
AESI: Weak Volumes And Project Uncertainty Are Expected To Cap Upside
Our updated fair value estimate for Atlas Energy Solutions moves to $8.0 per share, reflecting higher analyst price targets across a range of views: $8 at Barclays, $9 at Goldman Sachs, $11 at BofA, and $14 at Stifel, alongside adjusted assumptions for growth, margins, discount rate, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Street research on Atlas Energy Solutions shows a wide range of views, with some investors focused on upside potential and others highlighting execution and valuation risks.Narrative Update • Feb 18
AESI: Execution On Pricing And Logistics Efficiency Will Drive Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Atlas Energy Solutions by $2.58 to $16.00. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly softer profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple, even as revenue growth expectations and discount rate estimates remain broadly stable.Narrative Update • Feb 04
AESI: Power Expansion And Sand Headwinds Will Shape Balanced Forward Outlook
Analysts have reduced their average price target for Atlas Energy Solutions by about $0.87 to approximately $11.35. This adjustment reflects recent target cuts, cautious views on 2026 sand pricing and logistics profitability, and mixed updates across the oilfield services group.Narrative Update • Jan 21
AESI: Power Expansion And 2027 EBITDA Potential Will Drive Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Atlas Energy Solutions by a few dollars, with some citing more cautious views on sand pricing, logistics profitability, and the outlook for the core oilfield services business, even as others acknowledge an improved sector backdrop into 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent research has highlighted a split view on Atlas Energy Solutions, with some firms taking a more cautious tone on sand pricing, volumes, and logistics, while others are incrementally more constructive on the longer term earnings setup across oilfield services.Narrative Update • Jan 07
AESI: Softer Sand And Weak Completions Are Expected To Pressure Earnings
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Atlas Energy Solutions by roughly $2 to $4, with new ranges around $8 to $13. This reflects concerns about softer sand pricing, logistics profitability, ongoing pressure in the core oilfield services business, and uncertainty around the timing of a recovery.Narrative Update • Dec 23
AESI: Softer Sand Pricing Will Pressure Earnings And Limit Share Upside
Analysts have cut their price target on Atlas Energy Solutions from $12.00 to $7.00, citing weaker expected sand pricing, softer logistics profitability, and ongoing macro headwinds that weigh on near-term earnings power despite the company’s push into distributed power. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have grown more cautious on Atlas Energy Solutions, trimming price targets across the board and signaling increased skepticism about the company’s earnings trajectory.Narrative Update • Dec 09
AESI: Distributed Power Expansion Will Support Future Upside Despite Sand Headwinds
Atlas Energy Solutions' analyst price target has been revised modestly lower to about $12.23 from $12.50 as analysts factor in softer sand pricing, lingering macro headwinds for U.S. land services, and growing concerns about logistics profitability, despite the company's expansion into the distributed power market. Analyst Commentary Street research on Atlas Energy Solutions has tilted more cautious as analysts reassess the company’s earnings power and valuation in light of weaker sand pricing and a tougher onshore services backdrop.Narrative Update • Nov 25
AESI: Power Segment Expansion Will Support Future Recovery Despite Market Weakness
The average analyst price target for Atlas Energy Solutions has been reduced from $13.68 to $12.50. Analysts cite ongoing weakness in sand prices, subdued margins, and a challenging market backdrop as factors weighing on the company's outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 07
AESI: Sector Recovery And Power Segment Will Drive Rebound Into 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions' analyst price target has been reduced from $14 to $12 per share, as analysts cite ongoing softness in the completions market and sustained headwinds in sand prices, despite some signs of recovery in oil and gas activity. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates for Atlas Energy Solutions reflect both cautious optimism and ongoing concerns regarding the company’s near-term prospects.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Recovery Signs Will Offset Permian Challenges Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Analysts have lowered the price target for Atlas Energy Solutions from approximately $14.18 to $13.68 per share. They cited prolonged softness in sand pricing, a weakening completions market, and continued macroeconomic headwinds.Narrative Update • Oct 09
Permian Shale Trends Will Secure A Resilient Logistics Future
The average analyst price target for Atlas Energy Solutions has been reduced from $15.00 to $14.18 as analysts cite continued headwinds from softening sand prices and mixed market trends across the oilfield services sector. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research presents a mixed outlook for Atlas Energy Solutions, with updated ratings, price targets, and sector perspectives highlighting both opportunities and ongoing risks for the company.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Permian Shale Trends Will Secure A Resilient Logistics Future
Atlas Energy Solutions' price target remains unchanged at $15.00 as analysts cite ongoing sector headwinds—such as weak U.S. completion activity, downward EBITDA revisions, and underperformance versus the S&P 500—partially offset by stability in the Power Generation segment and dividend reliability. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite persistent near-term headwinds from weak U.S. completion activity and pressure on frac sand prices.Analysis Article • Jul 07
Does Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE:AESI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • May 14
We Think That There Are More Issues For Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE:AESI) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
The latest earnings report from Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ( NYSE:AESI ) disappointed investors. We did some digging...Analysis Article • May 08
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Just Missed EPS By 93%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a mediocre week for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ( NYSE:AESI ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to...Analysis Article • Apr 24
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s (NYSE:AESI) Stock Retreats 26% But Earnings Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ( NYSE:AESI ) share price has dived 26% in the...Analysis Article • Feb 27
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
It's been a mediocre week for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ( NYSE:AESI ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to...Analysis Article • Jan 06
Atlas Energy Solutions' (NYSE:AESI) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Analysis Article • Dec 04
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s (NYSE:AESI) 25% Share Price Surge
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ( NYSE:AESI ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period...Seeking Alpha • Nov 02
Atlas Energy Solutions: Operational Hurdles And Premature Capital Allocation Decisions (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Since our initiation on AESI, the company faced a challenging environment coupled with operationnal mistakes. Yet, despite rising costs and debt, management decided to increase dividend and initiated a $ 200m buyback plan over the upcoming 24 months. We consider this decision as premature. With high expectations towards the Dune Express project, we prefer to stay away from the stock at this time. We downgrade our rating to HOLD. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 01
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE:AESI) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. ( NYSE:AESI ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's...
New Narrative • Sep 10
Innovative Logistics And Recovery Strategies Propel Energy Firm's Growth And Margin Expansion
Initiatives like the Dune Express and autonomous trucking partnerships are geared towards enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing long-term costs, improving revenue.Analysis Article • Aug 14
Atlas Energy Solutions' (NYSE:AESI) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s ( NYSE:AESI ) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We think...Seeking Alpha • Aug 13
Atlas Energy Solutions: An Intriguing High-Yield Energy Play
Summary Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. shares have fallen 20% since May 2024 due to a fire at a key facility and decreasing rig count. However, the company has increased production capacity by acquiring Hi-Crush, leading to a near monopoly position in the Permian Basin. The company's game-changing Dune Express project is set to come online in 4Q24, reducing operating costs and improving efficiency. The stock is also trading at roughly 6 times FY2025E EPS and has a dividend yield of 4.6%. A full investment analysis around Atlas Energy Solutions follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 13
Take Care Before Diving Into The Deep End On Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE:AESI)
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s ( NYSE:AESI ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.9x might make it look like a buy...Analysis Article • Jul 22
Is Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE:AESI) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,493 | 58 | 317 | 316 | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,308 | 35 | 86 | 239 | 9 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,116 | -78 | 8 | 132 | 6 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,063 | -99 | 19 | 144 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,095 | -50 | -31 | 117 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,117 | -14 | -18 | 184 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,162 | 14 | -18 | 237 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,161 | 34 | -121 | 209 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,056 | 60 | -118 | 256 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 926 | 81 | -146 | 271 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 779 | 107 | -189 | 241 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 653 | 130 | -116 | 284 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 614 | 105 | -66 | 299 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 623 | 132 | -18 | 264 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 607 | 168 | 71 | 289 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 576 | 198 | 92 | 237 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 483 | 217 | 116 | 206 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 386 | 149 | 85 | 149 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 287 | 89 | 51 | 82 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 200 | 30 | 17 | 41 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 172 | 4 | 2 | 21 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 146 | 1 | 23 | 35 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 112 | -34 | 3 | 12 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AESI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: AESI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: AESI is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AESI's revenue (12.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AESI's revenue (12.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AESI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (4.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/17 16:10 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Sungeun Kim | Barclays |
| Derek Podhaizer | Barclays |
| Saurabh Pant | BofA Global Research |