Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Just Missed EPS By 93%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a mediocre week for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE:AESI) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$11.95 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.01 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$298m and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Atlas Energy Solutions after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Atlas Energy Solutions are now predicting revenues of US$1.27b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 10% to US$0.31. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.57 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for Atlas Energy Solutions

The average price target fell 13% to US$18.78, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Atlas Energy Solutions analyst has a price target of US$29.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$12.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Atlas Energy Solutions' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Atlas Energy Solutions' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 44% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Atlas Energy Solutions' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Atlas Energy Solutions. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Atlas Energy Solutions' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Atlas Energy Solutions. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Atlas Energy Solutions analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Atlas Energy Solutions (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.