Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that U.S. Energy Corp. (NASDAQ:USEG) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for U.S. Energy
What Is U.S. Energy's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 U.S. Energy had debt of US$12.0m, up from US$4.04m in one year. However, it does have US$2.53m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$9.47m.
How Strong Is U.S. Energy's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that U.S. Energy had liabilities of US$9.20m due within a year, and liabilities of US$28.7m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$2.53m as well as receivables valued at US$2.42m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$32.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$41.4m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on U.S. Energy's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.73 and interest cover of 3.8 times, it seems to us that U.S. Energy is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Notably, U.S. Energy made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, but improved that to positive EBIT of US$2.9m in the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine U.S. Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. During the last year, U.S. Energy burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say U.S. Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that U.S. Energy's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with U.S. Energy (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqCM:USEG
U.S. Energy
An independent energy company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the United States.
Slight and fair value.