Alto Ingredients (NasdaqCM:ALTO) - Share price, News & Analysis

ALTO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

ALTO Stock Overview

Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets specialty alcohols and essential ingredients in the United States.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (8x) is below the US market (14.7x)

Earnings grew by 175.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.4% per year for the next 3 years

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Alto Ingredients Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Alto Ingredients
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$4.00
52 Week High	US$7.37
52 Week Low	US$3.76
Beta	2.64
1 Month Change	-11.11%
3 Month Change	-42.86%
1 Year Change	-34.85%
3 Year Change	422.88%
5 Year Change	-36.00%
Change since IPO	-99.60%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 18

With EPS Growth And More, Alto Ingredients (NASDAQ:ALTO) Makes An Interesting Case

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...

Shareholder Returns

	ALTO	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	-9.0%	-1.4%	6.6%
1Y	-34.9%	26.3%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: ALTO underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 26.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALTO underperformed the US Market which returned -18.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALTO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALTO volatility
ALTO Average Weekly Movement	8.4%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.6%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: ALTO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALTO's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2003	416	Mike Kandris	https://www.altoingredients.com

Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets specialty alcohols and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Production, and Other Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages, flavor extracts, and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils and carbon dioxide for food and beverage markets; and essential ingredients include dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications.

Alto Ingredients Fundamentals Summary

How do Alto Ingredients's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALTO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$296.30m
Earnings (TTM)	US$36.94m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.30b

8.0x

P/E Ratio

0.2x

P/S Ratio

Is ALTO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALTO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.30b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.24b
Gross Profit	US$58.72m
Other Expenses	US$21.78m
Earnings	US$36.94m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.50
Gross Margin	4.53%
Net Profit Margin	2.85%
Debt/Equity Ratio	15.7%

How did ALTO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALTO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALTO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALTO. This is calculated by dividing ALTO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALTO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$296.30m

ALTO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.2x
PEG Ratio	-18.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALTO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ALTO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALTO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.8x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALTO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALTO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALTO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8x
Fair PE Ratio	11.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALTO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALTO ($4) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($3.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALTO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ALTO's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Alto Ingredients forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-0.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: ALTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALTO's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALTO's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ALTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Alto Ingredients performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

17.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALTO has a large one-off gain of $11.7M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: ALTO's current net profit margins (2.8%) are higher than last year (1.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALTO has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 17.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: ALTO's earnings growth over the past year (175.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (17.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ALTO earnings growth over the past year (175.7%) exceeded the Oil and Gas industry 98.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALTO's Return on Equity (11.3%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Alto Ingredients's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALTO's short term assets ($241.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($80.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: ALTO's short term assets ($241.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($74.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALTO's net debt to equity ratio (5.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALTO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 48.5% to 15.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALTO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (78.9%).

Interest Coverage: ALTO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (15.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Alto Ingredients's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALTO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALTO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALTO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALTO's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ALTO has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mike Kandris (73 yo)

9.42yrs

Tenure

US$1,878,748

Compensation

Mr. Michael D. Kandris, also known as Mike, serves as President and Chief Executive Officer at Alto Ingredients, Inc. (formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc.) since September 30, 2020 and its Chief Operat...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mike's total compensation ($USD1.88M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.72M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mike's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALTO's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALTO's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 15.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ALTO insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31