Alto Ingredients, Inc.

NasdaqCM:ALTO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$106.5m

Alto Ingredients Valuation

Is ALTO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALTO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALTO ($1.39) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($6.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALTO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALTO?

Key metric: As ALTO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ALTO. This is calculated by dividing ALTO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ALTO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.1x
SalesUS$1.00b
Market CapUS$106.54m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ALTO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ALTO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.8x
NTIC Northern Technologies International
1.5x8.1%US$132.7m
NANX Nanophase Technologies
3.7xn/aUS$188.3m
FSI Flexible Solutions International
1.3x14.9%US$49.2m
DNMR Danimer Scientific
0.5x48.2%US$18.5m
ALTO Alto Ingredients
0.1x3.1%US$106.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ALTO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (1.8x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ALTO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.4x4.6%
ALTO Alto Ingredients
0.1x3.1%US$106.54m
TSE Trinseo
0.03x5.0%US$117.53m
BON Bon Natural Life
0.2xn/aUS$5.36m
ALTO 0.1xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies18PS01.22.43.64.86+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.4x16.8%
ALTO Alto Ingredients
0.1x161.6%US$106.54m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ALTO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (1.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALTO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALTO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ALTO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALTO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$1.39
US$4.50
+223.7%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
Nov ’25US$1.90
US$4.50
+136.8%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
Oct ’25US$1.62
US$4.50
+177.8%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
Sep ’25US$1.38
US$4.50
+226.1%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
Aug ’25US$1.55
US$4.50
+190.3%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
Jul ’25US$1.43
US$4.50
+215.8%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
Jun ’25US$1.52
US$4.50
+196.1%
22.2%US$5.50US$3.50n/a2
May ’25US$1.86
US$4.75
+155.4%
15.8%US$5.50US$4.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$2.29
US$4.75
+107.4%
15.8%US$5.50US$4.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$2.22
US$5.25
+136.5%
4.8%US$5.50US$5.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$1.89
US$5.25
+177.8%
4.8%US$5.50US$5.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$2.66
US$5.25
+97.4%
4.8%US$5.50US$5.00n/a2
Dec ’24US$2.52
US$5.25
+108.3%
4.8%US$5.50US$5.00n/a2
Nov ’24US$4.26
US$6.50
+52.6%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00US$1.902
Oct ’24US$4.42
US$6.50
+47.1%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00US$1.622
Sep ’24US$3.68
US$6.50
+76.6%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00US$1.382
Aug ’24US$3.93
US$5.00
+27.2%
32.7%US$7.00US$3.00US$1.553
Jul ’24US$2.89
US$5.00
+73.0%
32.7%US$7.00US$3.00US$1.433
Jun ’24US$2.02
US$5.00
+147.5%
32.7%US$7.00US$3.00US$1.523
May ’24US$1.28
US$7.00
+446.9%
23.3%US$9.00US$5.00US$1.863
Apr ’24US$1.50
US$7.00
+366.7%
23.3%US$9.00US$5.00US$2.293
Mar ’24US$3.00
US$8.33
+177.8%
20.4%US$10.00US$6.00US$2.223
Feb ’24US$3.42
US$8.33
+143.7%
20.4%US$10.00US$6.00US$1.893
Jan ’24US$2.88
US$9.00
+212.5%
24.0%US$11.00US$6.00US$2.663
Dec ’23US$3.40
US$9.00
+164.7%
24.0%US$11.00US$6.00US$2.523
Nov ’23US$4.16
US$11.67
+180.4%
28.3%US$16.00US$8.00US$4.263

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.


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