Earnings Beat: Morgan Stanley Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Morgan Stanley beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$15b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 19%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Morgan Stanley after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Morgan Stanley

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Morgan Stanley from 18 analysts is for revenues of US$62.2b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 19% to US$7.84. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$61.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.60 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 7.6% to US$116, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Morgan Stanley analyst has a price target of US$135 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$95.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Morgan Stanley shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Morgan Stanley is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Morgan Stanley's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Morgan Stanley analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Morgan Stanley , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.