Guild Holdings Company

NYSE:GHLD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$877.8m

Guild Holdings Valuation

Is GHLD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GHLD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GHLD ($14.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($103.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GHLD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GHLD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GHLD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA23.5x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GHLD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GHLD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20x
WSBF Waterstone Financial
27.1xn/aUS$269.6m
VEL Velocity Financial
10.9x4.7%US$637.3m
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services
34x46.0%US$5.3b
MBIN Merchants Bancorp
8x1.2%US$2.2b
GHLD Guild Holdings
33x36.6%US$877.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GHLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x) compared to the peer average (20x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GHLD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GHLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (15x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GHLD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GHLD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33x
Fair PE Ratio23.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GHLD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GHLD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$14.35
US$16.07
+12.0%
8.2%US$18.00US$14.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$13.83
US$15.93
+15.2%
9.3%US$18.00US$14.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$14.53
US$15.83
+9.0%
9.9%US$18.00US$14.00n/a6
May ’25US$13.60
US$15.58
+14.6%
12.3%US$18.00US$12.50n/a6
Apr ’25US$14.77
US$15.64
+5.9%
11.4%US$18.00US$12.50n/a7
Mar ’25US$14.00
US$14.93
+6.6%
17.6%US$18.00US$10.50n/a7
Feb ’25US$14.34
US$14.42
+0.5%
17.3%US$17.00US$10.50n/a6
Jan ’25US$14.09
US$13.79
-2.2%
16.0%US$17.00US$10.50n/a7
Dec ’24US$12.04
US$13.50
+12.1%
13.9%US$16.00US$10.50n/a7
Nov ’24US$10.38
US$13.86
+33.5%
11.2%US$16.00US$11.00n/a7
Oct ’24US$10.97
US$14.21
+29.6%
11.3%US$16.00US$11.00n/a7
Sep ’24US$12.19
US$14.21
+16.6%
11.3%US$16.00US$11.00n/a7
Aug ’24US$12.40
US$13.71
+10.6%
13.9%US$16.00US$10.00n/a7
Jul ’24US$11.36
US$13.21
+16.3%
14.0%US$16.00US$10.00US$13.837
Jun ’24US$10.67
US$13.08
+22.6%
15.0%US$16.00US$10.00US$14.536
May ’24US$9.70
US$13.50
+39.2%
15.3%US$16.00US$10.00US$13.606
Apr ’24US$10.40
US$13.42
+29.0%
15.6%US$16.00US$10.00US$14.776
Mar ’24US$11.60
US$13.33
+14.9%
28.2%US$19.00US$8.50US$14.006
Feb ’24US$11.05
US$13.33
+20.7%
28.2%US$19.00US$8.50US$14.346
Jan ’24US$10.09
US$13.17
+30.5%
29.0%US$19.00US$8.50US$14.096
Dec ’23US$10.96
US$13.43
+22.5%
26.7%US$19.00US$8.50US$12.047
Nov ’23US$8.58
US$14.14
+64.8%
19.8%US$19.00US$10.00US$10.387
Oct ’23US$9.24
US$14.21
+53.8%
19.3%US$19.00US$10.00US$10.977
Sep ’23US$9.99
US$14.50
+45.1%
19.8%US$19.00US$10.00US$12.196
Aug ’23US$11.90
US$13.17
+10.6%
25.3%US$19.00US$9.00US$12.406
Jul ’23US$10.40
US$12.25
+17.8%
30.5%US$19.00US$8.00US$11.366

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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