Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

NYSE:AGM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.2b

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Valuation

Is AGM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGM ($206.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($279.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGM?

Key metric: As AGM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AGM. This is calculated by dividing AGM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AGM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.2x
EarningsUS$170.41m
Market CapUS$2.20b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.4x
MBIN Merchants Bancorp
6.8x0.9%US$1.8b
NMIH NMI Holdings
8.3x4.8%US$3.0b
WD Walker & Dunlop
38.9x28.4%US$3.6b
ACT Enact Holdings
7.6x-2.3%US$5.2b
AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage
13.2x8.4%US$2.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the peer average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FOA Finance of America Companies
1.6x-143.9%US$494.84m
PMIR PMI Group
1.2xn/aUS$6.80m
ACGX Alliance Creative Group
2xn/aUS$598.94k
No more companies available in this PE range
AGM 13.2xIndustry Avg. 18.5xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.2x
Fair PE Ratio14.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$206.72
US$218.00
+5.5%
5.3%US$233.00US$205.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$184.36
US$218.00
+18.2%
5.3%US$233.00US$205.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$183.28
US$218.00
+18.9%
5.3%US$233.00US$205.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$197.47
US$218.00
+10.4%
5.3%US$233.00US$205.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$198.42
US$223.67
+12.7%
5.2%US$240.00US$215.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$181.34
US$222.67
+22.8%
5.6%US$240.00US$212.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$174.67
US$222.67
+27.5%
5.6%US$240.00US$212.00n/a3
May ’25US$189.88
US$227.00
+19.5%
4.4%US$240.00US$216.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$191.26
US$227.00
+18.7%
4.4%US$240.00US$216.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$181.15
US$227.00
+25.3%
4.4%US$240.00US$216.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$188.65
US$215.33
+14.1%
3.8%US$225.00US$205.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$191.22
US$210.00
+9.8%
5.1%US$225.00US$200.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$168.70
US$210.00
+24.5%
5.1%US$225.00US$200.00n/a3
Nov ’24US$152.65
US$208.33
+36.5%
4.1%US$220.00US$200.00US$184.363
Oct ’24US$154.30
US$208.33
+35.0%
4.1%US$220.00US$200.00US$183.283
Sep ’24US$170.42
US$202.50
+18.8%
1.2%US$205.00US$200.00US$197.472
Aug ’24US$162.84
US$175.00
+7.5%
1.7%US$178.00US$172.00US$198.422
Jul ’24US$143.74
US$175.00
+21.7%
1.7%US$178.00US$172.00US$181.342
Jun ’24US$136.31
US$175.00
+28.4%
1.7%US$178.00US$172.00US$174.672
May ’24US$132.69
US$171.00
+28.9%
0.6%US$172.00US$170.00US$189.882
Apr ’24US$133.19
US$171.00
+28.4%
0.6%US$172.00US$170.00US$191.262
Mar ’24US$145.07
US$171.00
+17.9%
0.6%US$172.00US$170.00US$181.152
Feb ’24US$132.80
US$151.50
+14.1%
8.3%US$164.00US$139.00US$188.652

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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