Merchants Bancorp

NasdaqCM:MBIN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.8b

Merchants Bancorp Valuation

Is MBIN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MBIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MBIN ($39.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($121.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MBIN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MBIN?

Key metric: As MBIN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MBIN. This is calculated by dividing MBIN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MBIN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.8x
EarningsUS$267.52m
Market CapUS$1.84b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MBIN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MBIN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.7x
AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage
13.2x8.4%US$2.2b
NMIH NMI Holdings
8.3x4.8%US$3.0b
VEL Velocity Financial
10.3x6.4%US$660.6m
WD Walker & Dunlop
38.9x28.4%US$3.6b
MBIN Merchants Bancorp
6.8x0.9%US$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MBIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the peer average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MBIN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FOA Finance of America Companies
1.6x-143.9%US$494.84m
PMIR PMI Group
1.2xn/aUS$6.80m
ACGX Alliance Creative Group
2xn/aUS$598.94k
No more companies available in this PE range
MBIN 6.8xIndustry Avg. 18.5xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MBIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MBIN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MBIN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.8x
Fair PE Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MBIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MBIN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.51
US$51.00
+29.1%
5.8%US$55.00US$48.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$36.32
US$52.33
+44.1%
5.9%US$55.00US$48.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$43.67
US$56.00
+28.2%
2.9%US$58.00US$54.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$45.85
US$57.00
+24.3%
1.8%US$58.00US$56.00n/a2
Aug ’25US$42.86
US$57.00
+33.0%
1.8%US$58.00US$56.00n/a2
Jul ’25US$40.93
US$55.50
+35.6%
0.9%US$56.00US$55.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$40.05
US$55.50
+38.6%
0.9%US$56.00US$55.00n/a2
May ’25US$41.60
US$54.00
+29.8%
1.9%US$55.00US$53.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$42.26
US$54.00
+27.8%
1.9%US$55.00US$53.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$42.58
US$45.50
+6.9%
3.3%US$47.00US$44.00n/a2
Dec ’24US$34.28
US$41.00
+19.6%
7.3%US$44.00US$38.00n/a2
Nov ’24US$30.44
US$41.00
+34.7%
7.3%US$44.00US$38.00US$36.322
Oct ’24US$27.72
US$39.50
+42.5%
3.8%US$41.00US$38.00US$43.672
Sep ’24US$29.56
US$39.50
+33.6%
3.8%US$41.00US$38.00US$45.852
Aug ’24US$31.66
US$39.50
+24.8%
3.8%US$41.00US$38.00US$42.862
Jul ’24US$25.58
US$34.50
+34.9%
10.1%US$38.00US$31.00US$40.932
Jun ’24US$23.32
US$34.50
+47.9%
10.1%US$38.00US$31.00US$40.052
May ’24US$23.66
US$34.50
+45.8%
10.1%US$38.00US$31.00US$41.602
Apr ’24US$26.04
US$36.50
+40.2%
4.1%US$38.00US$35.00US$42.262
Mar ’24US$30.48
US$36.50
+19.8%
4.1%US$38.00US$35.00US$42.572
Jan ’24US$24.32
US$31.75
+30.6%
0.8%US$32.00US$31.50US$42.582
Dec ’23US$25.35
US$30.50
+20.3%
4.9%US$32.00US$29.00US$34.282
Nov ’23US$24.09
US$30.50
+26.6%
4.9%US$32.00US$29.00US$30.442

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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