Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$318m arriving 2.2% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$1.69, 2.2% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Essent Group from six analysts is for revenues of US$1.29b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 3.9% to US$6.85 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.82 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.

View our latest analysis for Essent Group

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$63.57, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Essent Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$70.00 and the most bearish at US$58.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Essent Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Essent Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Essent Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$63.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Essent Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Essent Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.