Did BXMT’s Earnings Miss And Insider Tax Sale Just Reframe Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s Dividend Story?

• In the past quarter, Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of US$0.24, below the US$0.36 analyst forecast, while its CFO sold 506 shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan to cover tax obligations on restricted stock awards.
• Despite the earnings shortfall, the company pointed to resilient real estate fundamentals, ongoing portfolio rotation, and a 14-year record of uninterrupted dividends as it works through impaired loans and redeploys capital.
• With earnings falling short of expectations yet management emphasizing portfolio rotation and dividend consistency, we’ll examine how this shapes Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s investment narrative.

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust Investment Narrative Recap

To own Blackstone Mortgage Trust, you need to believe its senior commercial real estate loans can keep funding a reliable dividend while it works through impaired assets. The latest earnings miss against forecasts underlines that the near term catalyst remains successful portfolio rotation, while the biggest risk is still the drag from impaired and non earning loans. This quarter’s results do not materially change that balance, but they do highlight how tight the margin for error is.

Against this backdrop, the continued declaration of a US$0.47 per share quarterly dividend stands out as the announcement most connected to the recent earnings shortfall. It reinforces management’s emphasis on dividend consistency even as the company manages US$970 million of impaired loans and redeploys capital, keeping attention squarely on whether future earnings can catch up with the current payout.

Yet investors should also be aware that if impaired loans take longer to resolve than expected, the pressure on margins and dividend coverage could...

Read the full narrative on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (it's free!)

Blackstone Mortgage Trust's narrative projects $547.4 million revenue and $513.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 32.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $526 million from -$12.6 million today.

Uncover how Blackstone Mortgage Trust's forecasts yield a $20.50 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see fair value anywhere between US$2.05 and US$20.50, reflecting very different expectations. When you set those views against the ongoing work to resolve US$970 million of impaired loans, it becomes clear how important it is to consider several perspectives on BXMT’s future earnings power.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Blackstone Mortgage Trust - why the stock might be worth as much as $20.50!

Build Your Own Blackstone Mortgage Trust Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Blackstone Mortgage Trust research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Blackstone Mortgage Trust research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Blackstone Mortgage Trust's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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