Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

NYSE:BXMT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.3b

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Valuation

Is BXMT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BXMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BXMT ($18.56) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BXMT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BXMT?

Key metric: As BXMT is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for BXMT. This is calculated by dividing BXMT's market cap by their current book value.
What is BXMT's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio0.8x
BookUS$3.84b
Market CapUS$3.26b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does BXMT's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for BXMT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.9x
DX Dynex Capital
1.4x27.5%US$1.4b
CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust
0.4x116.2%US$914.2m
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
1.1x7.9%US$3.0b
RWT Redwood Trust
0.8x19.7%US$941.7m
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust
0.8x121.8%US$3.3b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: BXMT is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does BXMT's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ACMC American Church Mortgage
0.01xn/aUS$67.06k
No more companies available in this PB range
BXMT 0.8xIndustry Avg. 0.8xNo. of Companies13PB00.61.21.82.43+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: BXMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (0.8x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BXMT's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BXMT PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio0.8x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BXMT's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BXMT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.56
US$20.00
+7.8%
9.0%US$23.00US$18.50n/a6
Nov ’25US$18.25
US$20.00
+9.6%
9.0%US$23.00US$18.50n/a6
Oct ’25US$18.40
US$18.83
+2.4%
14.2%US$23.00US$16.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$18.46
US$18.33
-0.7%
12.5%US$23.00US$16.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$17.64
US$18.33
+3.9%
12.5%US$23.00US$16.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$17.13
US$18.50
+8.0%
4.8%US$20.00US$17.50n/a5
Jun ’25US$17.44
US$18.70
+7.2%
4.7%US$20.00US$17.50n/a5
May ’25US$17.76
US$18.70
+5.3%
4.7%US$20.00US$17.50n/a5
Apr ’25US$19.67
US$21.33
+8.5%
7.0%US$24.00US$19.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$20.45
US$21.50
+5.1%
6.5%US$24.00US$19.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$19.56
US$22.07
+12.8%
5.7%US$24.00US$20.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$21.27
US$22.07
+3.8%
5.7%US$24.00US$20.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$23.09
US$21.50
-6.9%
3.6%US$22.00US$20.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$20.19
US$21.50
+6.5%
3.6%US$22.00US$20.00US$18.256
Oct ’24US$21.75
US$23.25
+6.9%
3.5%US$24.00US$22.00US$18.406
Sep ’24US$22.16
US$22.93
+3.5%
4.7%US$24.00US$21.00US$18.467
Aug ’24US$22.70
US$23.07
+1.6%
5.5%US$25.00US$21.00US$17.647
Jul ’24US$20.81
US$19.36
-7.0%
8.4%US$22.00US$17.00US$17.137
Jun ’24US$18.19
US$19.36
+6.4%
8.4%US$22.00US$17.00US$17.447
May ’24US$17.88
US$20.07
+12.3%
14.1%US$26.00US$17.00US$17.767
Apr ’24US$17.85
US$24.86
+39.3%
4.0%US$26.00US$23.00US$19.677
Mar ’24US$20.77
US$24.86
+19.7%
4.0%US$26.00US$23.00US$20.457
Feb ’24US$24.30
US$27.14
+11.7%
6.7%US$30.00US$24.00US$19.567
Jan ’24US$21.17
US$27.86
+31.6%
4.0%US$30.00US$26.00US$21.277
Dec ’23US$24.58
US$28.29
+15.1%
3.1%US$30.00US$27.00US$23.097
Nov ’23US$24.97
US$28.29
+13.3%
3.1%US$30.00US$27.00US$20.197

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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