Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

NYSE:BXMT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.7b

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Valuation

Is BXMT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BXMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$11.81
Fair Value
75.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
7
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: BXMT ($20.74) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($11.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BXMT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BXMT?

Key metric: As BXMT is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for BXMT. This is calculated by dividing BXMT's market cap by their current book value.
What is BXMT's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1x
BookUS$3.79b
Market CapUS$3.66b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does BXMT's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for BXMT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
NLY Annaly Capital Management
1.1x28.0%US$12.6b
STWD Starwood Property Trust
1x15.7%US$6.8b
RITM Rithm Capital
0.9x9.2%US$6.2b
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
1x-3.6%US$2.5b
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust
1x77.9%US$3.7b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: BXMT is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does BXMT's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LTSV Lightstone Value Plus REIT IV
0.01xn/aUS$287.00k
ACMC American Church Mortgage
0.01xn/aUS$67.06k
No more companies available in this PB range
BXMT 1.0xIndustry Avg. 0.9xNo. of Companies12PB00.61.21.82.43+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: BXMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (0.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BXMT's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BXMT PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BXMT's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BXMT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$20.74
US$20.57
-0.8%
6.2%US$23.00US$19.50n/a7
Mar ’26US$20.78
US$20.43
-1.7%
6.7%US$23.00US$19.00n/a7
Feb ’26US$18.00
US$19.79
+9.9%
9.4%US$23.00US$17.50n/a7
Jan ’26US$17.41
US$20.07
+15.3%
8.0%US$23.00US$18.50n/a7
Dec ’25US$19.22
US$20.00
+4.1%
9.0%US$23.00US$18.50n/a6
Nov ’25US$18.25
US$20.00
+9.6%
9.0%US$23.00US$18.50n/a6
Oct ’25US$18.40
US$18.83
+2.4%
14.2%US$23.00US$16.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$18.46
US$18.33
-0.7%
12.5%US$23.00US$16.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$17.64
US$18.33
+3.9%
12.5%US$23.00US$16.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$17.13
US$18.50
+8.0%
4.8%US$20.00US$17.50n/a5
Jun ’25US$17.44
US$18.70
+7.2%
4.7%US$20.00US$17.50n/a5
May ’25US$17.76
US$18.70
+5.3%
4.7%US$20.00US$17.50n/a5
Apr ’25US$19.67
US$21.33
+8.5%
7.0%US$24.00US$19.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$20.45
US$21.50
+5.1%
6.5%US$24.00US$19.00US$20.787
Feb ’25US$19.56
US$22.07
+12.8%
5.7%US$24.00US$20.00US$18.007
Jan ’25US$21.27
US$22.07
+3.8%
5.7%US$24.00US$20.00US$17.417
Dec ’24US$23.09
US$21.50
-6.9%
3.6%US$22.00US$20.00US$19.226
Nov ’24US$20.19
US$21.50
+6.5%
3.6%US$22.00US$20.00US$18.256
Oct ’24US$21.75
US$23.25
+6.9%
3.5%US$24.00US$22.00US$18.406
Sep ’24US$22.16
US$22.93
+3.5%
4.7%US$24.00US$21.00US$18.467
Aug ’24US$22.70
US$23.07
+1.6%
5.5%US$25.00US$21.00US$17.647
Jul ’24US$20.81
US$19.36
-7.0%
8.4%US$22.00US$17.00US$17.137
Jun ’24US$18.19
US$19.36
+6.4%
8.4%US$22.00US$17.00US$17.447
May ’24US$17.88
US$20.07
+12.3%
14.1%US$26.00US$17.00US$17.767
Apr ’24US$17.85
US$24.86
+39.3%
4.0%US$26.00US$23.00US$19.677
Mar ’24US$20.77
US$24.86
+19.7%
4.0%US$26.00US$23.00US$20.457
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 7 Analysts
US$20.57
Fair Value
0.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
7
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/21 18:09
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Eric DrayBofA Global Research
Jessica Levi-RibnerB. Riley Securities, Inc.
William CatherwoodBTIG