Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

NYSE:BXMT Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$4.2b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Valuation

Is BXMT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BXMT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BXMT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BXMT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BXMT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.7x
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
8.7x-0.2%US$2.9b
HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital
27.7x23.7%US$3.4b
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
6.1x-18.5%US$1.8b
STWD Starwood Property Trust
8.3x-14.6%US$6.7b
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust
9.9x10.4%US$4.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BXMT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BXMT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a27.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BXMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (8.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BXMT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BXMT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.9x
Fair PE Ratio11.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BXMT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BXMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BXMT ($24.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($17.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BXMT is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BXMT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$24.60
US$27.14
+10.3%
6.7%US$30.00US$24.00n/a7
Jan ’24US$21.17
US$27.86
+31.6%
4.0%US$30.00US$26.00n/a7
Dec ’23US$24.58
US$28.29
+15.1%
3.1%US$30.00US$27.00n/a7
Nov ’23US$24.97
US$28.29
+13.3%
3.1%US$30.00US$27.00n/a7
Oct ’23US$23.34
US$32.00
+37.1%
4.1%US$33.00US$30.00n/a7
Sep ’23US$28.57
US$32.57
+14.0%
4.6%US$35.00US$30.00n/a7
Aug ’23US$30.99
US$32.57
+5.1%
4.6%US$35.00US$30.00n/a7
Jul ’23US$28.19
US$34.00
+20.6%
3.9%US$36.00US$32.00n/a7
Jun ’23US$31.04
US$34.00
+9.5%
3.9%US$36.00US$32.00n/a7
May ’23US$30.04
US$34.00
+13.2%
3.9%US$36.00US$32.00n/a7
Apr ’23US$32.04
US$34.29
+7.0%
5.3%US$38.00US$32.00n/a7
Mar ’23US$31.29
US$34.29
+9.6%
5.3%US$38.00US$32.00n/a7
Feb ’23US$31.32
US$34.29
+9.5%
5.3%US$38.00US$32.00US$24.307
Jan ’23US$30.62
US$34.29
+12.0%
5.3%US$38.00US$32.00US$21.177
Dec ’22US$29.47
US$34.17
+15.9%
5.7%US$38.00US$32.00US$24.586
Nov ’22US$33.40
US$34.14
+2.2%
5.7%US$38.00US$32.00US$24.977
Oct ’22US$31.07
US$33.50
+7.8%
4.5%US$36.00US$32.00US$23.346
Sep ’22US$32.77
US$33.57
+2.4%
4.2%US$36.00US$32.00US$28.577
Aug ’22US$32.42
US$33.57
+3.6%
4.2%US$36.00US$32.00US$30.997
Jul ’22US$31.74
US$33.29
+4.9%
5.3%US$36.00US$31.00US$28.197
Jun ’22US$32.44
US$33.29
+2.6%
5.3%US$36.00US$31.00US$31.047
May ’22US$32.49
US$33.29
+2.4%
5.3%US$36.00US$31.00US$30.047
Apr ’22US$31.21
US$29.83
-4.4%
5.3%US$33.00US$28.00US$32.046
Mar ’22US$30.21
US$29.00
-4.0%
2.6%US$30.00US$28.00US$31.297
Feb ’22US$27.36
US$27.14
-0.8%
6.0%US$29.00US$24.00US$31.327

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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