Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

NYSE:STWD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.1b

Starwood Property Trust Valuation

Is STWD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of STWD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: STWD ($19.38) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($14.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: STWD is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for STWD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

STWD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does STWD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for STWD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.4x
RITM Rithm Capital
9.8x15.6%US$5.2b
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust
13.2x20.9%US$3.3b
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
7.2x-4.7%US$2.6b
HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital
19.1x14.9%US$2.9b
STWD Starwood Property Trust
18.3x20.5%US$6.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: STWD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does STWD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a46.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a46.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: STWD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (12.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is STWD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

STWD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.3x
Fair PE Ratio19.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: STWD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst STWD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$19.38
US$22.00
+13.5%
5.9%US$24.00US$20.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$20.00
US$22.25
+11.3%
5.7%US$24.00US$21.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$20.57
US$22.38
+8.8%
5.6%US$24.00US$21.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$20.21
US$22.19
+9.8%
6.3%US$24.00US$20.50n/a8
Jan ’25US$21.02
US$22.13
+5.3%
6.7%US$24.00US$20.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$20.65
US$21.86
+5.8%
6.3%US$24.00US$20.00n/a7
Nov ’24US$17.99
US$21.86
+21.5%
6.3%US$24.00US$20.00n/a7
Oct ’24US$19.35
US$22.07
+14.1%
5.3%US$24.00US$21.00n/a7
Sep ’24US$20.68
US$21.69
+4.9%
6.9%US$24.00US$19.00n/a8
Aug ’24US$20.59
US$21.00
+2.0%
8.8%US$24.00US$19.00n/a8
Jul ’24US$19.40
US$19.93
+2.7%
8.2%US$23.50US$18.50n/a7
Jun ’24US$17.75
US$19.64
+10.7%
8.1%US$23.50US$18.50n/a7
May ’24US$17.50
US$21.43
+22.4%
13.9%US$28.00US$18.50n/a7
Apr ’24US$17.69
US$23.00
+30.0%
9.6%US$28.00US$21.00US$20.007
Mar ’24US$19.28
US$23.43
+21.5%
9.1%US$28.00US$21.00US$20.577
Feb ’24US$21.32
US$24.13
+13.2%
7.9%US$28.00US$22.00US$20.218
Jan ’24US$18.33
US$24.44
+33.3%
6.7%US$28.00US$22.50US$21.028
Dec ’23US$21.32
US$24.56
+15.2%
6.4%US$28.00US$22.50US$20.658
Nov ’23US$20.81
US$25.06
+20.4%
7.4%US$28.00US$22.50US$17.998
Oct ’23US$18.22
US$26.94
+47.8%
6.0%US$30.00US$25.00US$19.358
Sep ’23US$22.59
US$27.07
+19.8%
6.3%US$30.00US$25.00US$20.687
Aug ’23US$23.65
US$27.64
+16.9%
6.3%US$30.00US$25.00US$20.597
Jul ’23US$21.22
US$28.43
+34.0%
6.2%US$32.00US$26.00US$19.407
Jun ’23US$23.79
US$28.43
+19.5%
6.2%US$32.00US$26.00US$17.757
May ’23US$22.88
US$28.86
+26.1%
7.5%US$32.00US$26.00US$17.507
Apr ’23US$24.57
US$28.00
+14.0%
11.6%US$32.00US$22.00US$17.697

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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