Arbor Realty Trust Valuation

Is ABR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ABR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ABR ($13.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($19.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ABR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ABR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ABR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio-12.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ABR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ABR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11x
HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital
15.4x1.6%US$3.7b
RITM Rithm Capital
7.3x-1.3%US$5.3b
LADR Ladder Capital
14.8x11.6%US$1.4b
RC Ready Capital
6.4x-3.4%US$1.4b
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
8.3x-0.7%US$2.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ABR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (11x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ABR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a41.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a41.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ABR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ABR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ABR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio11.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ABR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ABR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$13.37
US$13.71
+2.5%
13.0%US$17.00US$12.00n/a6
May ’25US$12.97
US$13.75
+6.0%
12.9%US$17.00US$12.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$13.07
US$14.83
+13.5%
14.9%US$17.00US$12.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$12.92
US$15.17
+17.4%
12.4%US$17.00US$12.50n/a6
Feb ’25US$13.50
US$15.25
+13.0%
11.2%US$17.00US$12.50n/a6
Jan ’25US$15.18
US$15.50
+2.1%
14.2%US$19.00US$12.50n/a6
Dec ’24US$13.44
US$15.42
+14.7%
14.9%US$19.00US$12.50n/a6
Nov ’24US$12.40
US$15.50
+25.0%
15.1%US$19.00US$12.50n/a6
Oct ’24US$15.18
US$17.00
+12.0%
9.0%US$19.00US$15.00n/a6
Sep ’24US$16.16
US$17.00
+5.2%
9.0%US$19.00US$15.00n/a6
Aug ’24US$16.36
US$16.50
+0.9%
11.5%US$19.00US$14.00n/a6
Jul ’24US$14.82
US$14.75
-0.5%
14.2%US$17.50US$11.50n/a6
Jun ’24US$12.85
US$14.75
+14.8%
14.2%US$17.50US$11.50n/a6
May ’24US$11.21
US$15.00
+33.8%
19.9%US$18.50US$11.00US$12.975
Apr ’24US$11.49
US$16.70
+45.3%
7.7%US$18.50US$15.00US$13.075
Mar ’24US$14.99
US$16.70
+11.4%
7.7%US$18.50US$15.00US$12.925
Feb ’24US$15.16
US$16.40
+8.2%
9.9%US$18.50US$14.50US$13.505
Jan ’24US$13.19
US$16.50
+25.1%
9.2%US$18.50US$14.50US$15.185
Dec ’23US$14.81
US$16.60
+12.1%
8.4%US$18.50US$15.00US$13.445
Nov ’23US$13.70
US$16.40
+19.7%
9.1%US$18.50US$14.50US$12.405
Oct ’23US$11.50
US$18.60
+61.7%
9.5%US$21.00US$16.00US$15.185
Sep ’23US$14.56
US$19.00
+30.5%
6.9%US$21.00US$17.50US$16.165
Aug ’23US$16.55
US$19.00
+14.8%
6.9%US$21.00US$17.50US$16.365
Jul ’23US$13.47
US$19.80
+47.0%
12.5%US$24.00US$17.00US$14.825
Jun ’23US$16.41
US$20.40
+24.3%
10.1%US$24.00US$18.00US$12.855
May ’23US$17.10
US$20.70
+21.1%
9.4%US$24.00US$18.00US$11.215

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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