Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

NYSE:NLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.6b

Annaly Capital Management Valuation

Is NLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NLY ($18.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($33.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NLY?

Key metric: As NLY is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NLY. This is calculated by dividing NLY's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NLY's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio28.4x
SalesUS$369.37m
Market CapUS$10.62b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NLY's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.7x
STWD Starwood Property Trust
14.8x62.7%US$6.5b
RITM Rithm Capital
1.9x18.0%US$5.7b
AGNC AGNC Investment
6.5x24.7%US$8.3b
DX Dynex Capital
11.7x-45.5%US$1.4b
NLY Annaly Capital Management
28.4x87.8%US$10.6b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (28.4x) compared to the peer average (8.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NLY's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BMNM Bimini Capital Management
0.8xn/aUS$10.74m
No more companies available in this PS range
NLY 28.4xIndustry Avg. 5.1xNo. of Companies5PS03.26.49.612.816+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (28.4x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (5.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NLY's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NLY PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio28.4x
Fair PS Ratio9.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (28.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.71
US$21.45
+14.6%
4.8%US$23.50US$20.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$19.93
US$21.55
+8.1%
4.3%US$23.50US$20.50n/a10
Nov ’25US$18.96
US$21.60
+13.9%
4.2%US$23.50US$20.50n/a10
Oct ’25US$19.65
US$21.65
+10.2%
4.6%US$23.50US$20.50n/a10
Sep ’25US$20.16
US$21.10
+4.7%
5.5%US$23.50US$19.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$19.88
US$20.95
+5.4%
5.1%US$23.50US$19.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$18.66
US$20.58
+10.3%
4.3%US$22.00US$19.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$19.70
US$20.42
+3.6%
4.8%US$22.00US$19.00n/a9
May ’25US$18.97
US$20.42
+7.6%
4.8%US$22.00US$19.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$19.44
US$20.38
+4.8%
4.4%US$21.50US$19.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$19.29
US$20.38
+5.6%
4.4%US$21.50US$19.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$19.57
US$20.14
+2.9%
9.4%US$22.00US$16.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$19.37
US$18.82
-2.8%
9.3%US$21.50US$16.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$18.50
US$17.54
-5.2%
4.5%US$18.25US$16.00US$19.936
Nov ’24US$16.25
US$17.17
+5.6%
5.2%US$18.00US$16.00US$18.966
Oct ’24US$18.81
US$22.29
+18.5%
5.2%US$24.00US$21.00US$19.657
Sep ’24US$20.36
US$21.69
+6.5%
4.7%US$24.00US$20.50US$20.168
Aug ’24US$20.02
US$21.69
+8.3%
4.7%US$24.00US$20.50US$19.888
Jul ’24US$20.01
US$21.56
+7.8%
4.1%US$23.50US$20.50US$18.668
Jun ’24US$19.43
US$21.56
+11.0%
4.1%US$23.50US$20.50US$19.708
May ’24US$19.32
US$21.89
+13.3%
5.6%US$24.00US$20.00US$18.979
Apr ’24US$19.11
US$22.78
+19.2%
5.7%US$24.50US$20.00US$19.449
Mar ’24US$20.14
US$23.03
+14.3%
3.8%US$24.50US$22.00US$19.299
Feb ’24US$24.00
US$22.08
-8.0%
8.0%US$24.50US$18.50US$19.579
Jan ’24US$21.08
US$20.00
-5.1%
7.3%US$23.00US$18.50US$19.379
Dec ’23US$21.88
US$19.39
-11.4%
3.4%US$20.50US$18.50US$18.509

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 04:18
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is covered by 33 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Bruce HartingBarclays
Derek HewettBofA Global Research
Derek HewettBofA Global Research