Annaly Capital Management Valuation
Is NLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NLY ($19.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($33.94)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NLY?
Key metric: As NLY is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is NLY's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 29.9x |
| Sales | US$369.37m |
| Market Cap | US$11.04b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does NLY's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 10.5x | ||
STWD Starwood Property Trust | 15x | 62.7% | US$6.6b |
RITM Rithm Capital | 1.9x | 18.8% | US$5.6b |
AGNC AGNC Investment | 6.7x | 28.8% | US$8.5b |
CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust | 18.5x | 36.5% | US$933.7m |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | 29.9x | 82.6% | US$11.0b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (29.9x) compared to the peer average (10.5x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does NLY's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
BMNM Bimini Capital Management | 0.7x | n/a | US$9.54m |
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (29.9x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (5.4x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NLY's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 29.9x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 8.8x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (29.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$19.69 | US$21.60 +9.7% | 4.2% | US$23.50 | US$20.50 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’25 | US$18.96 | US$21.60 +13.9% | 4.2% | US$23.50 | US$20.50 | n/a | 10 |
| Oct ’25 | US$19.65 | US$21.65 +10.2% | 4.6% | US$23.50 | US$20.50 | n/a | 10 |
| Sep ’25 | US$20.16 | US$21.10 +4.7% | 5.5% | US$23.50 | US$19.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Aug ’25 | US$19.88 | US$20.95 +5.4% | 5.1% | US$23.50 | US$19.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Jul ’25 | US$18.66 | US$20.58 +10.3% | 4.3% | US$22.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’25 | US$19.70 | US$20.42 +3.6% | 4.8% | US$22.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 9 |
| May ’25 | US$18.97 | US$20.42 +7.6% | 4.8% | US$22.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’25 | US$19.44 | US$20.38 +4.8% | 4.4% | US$21.50 | US$19.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Mar ’25 | US$19.29 | US$20.38 +5.6% | 4.4% | US$21.50 | US$19.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Feb ’25 | US$19.57 | US$20.14 +2.9% | 9.4% | US$22.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jan ’25 | US$19.37 | US$18.82 -2.8% | 9.3% | US$21.50 | US$16.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Dec ’24 | US$18.50 | US$17.54 -5.2% | 4.5% | US$18.25 | US$16.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | US$16.25 | US$17.17 +5.6% | 5.2% | US$18.00 | US$16.00 | US$18.96 | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | US$18.81 | US$22.29 +18.5% | 5.2% | US$24.00 | US$21.00 | US$19.65 | 7 |
| Sep ’24 | US$20.36 | US$21.69 +6.5% | 4.7% | US$24.00 | US$20.50 | US$20.16 | 8 |
| Aug ’24 | US$20.02 | US$21.69 +8.3% | 4.7% | US$24.00 | US$20.50 | US$19.88 | 8 |
| Jul ’24 | US$20.01 | US$21.56 +7.8% | 4.1% | US$23.50 | US$20.50 | US$18.66 | 8 |
| Jun ’24 | US$19.43 | US$21.56 +11.0% | 4.1% | US$23.50 | US$20.50 | US$19.70 | 8 |
| May ’24 | US$19.32 | US$21.89 +13.3% | 5.6% | US$24.00 | US$20.00 | US$18.97 | 9 |
| Apr ’24 | US$19.11 | US$22.78 +19.2% | 5.7% | US$24.50 | US$20.00 | US$19.44 | 9 |
| Mar ’24 | US$20.14 | US$23.03 +14.3% | 3.8% | US$24.50 | US$22.00 | US$19.29 | 9 |
| Feb ’24 | US$24.00 | US$22.08 -8.0% | 8.0% | US$24.50 | US$18.50 | US$19.57 | 9 |
| Jan ’24 | US$21.08 | US$20.00 -5.1% | 7.3% | US$23.00 | US$18.50 | US$19.37 | 9 |
| Dec ’23 | US$21.88 | US$19.39 -11.4% | 3.4% | US$20.50 | US$18.50 | US$18.50 | 9 |
| Nov ’23 | US$18.42 | US$19.22 +4.4% | 4.1% | US$20.50 | US$18.00 | US$16.25 | 9 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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