Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

NYSE:NLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.6b

Annaly Capital Management Valuation

Is NLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$30.99
Fair Value
36.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NLY ($19.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($30.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NLY?

Key metric: As NLY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NLY. This is calculated by dividing NLY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NLY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.8x
EarningsUS$847.36m
Market CapUS$11.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.4x
STWD Starwood Property Trust
18.4x15.2%US$6.5b
RITM Rithm Capital
9.2x21.8%US$5.8b
ABR Arbor Realty Trust
10x-0.6%US$2.4b
DX Dynex Capital
20.2x57.2%US$1.3b
NLY Annaly Capital Management
13.8x26.9%US$11.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NLY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the peer average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
NLY 13.8xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies6PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.8x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NLY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$19.62
US$20.56
+4.8%
6.7%US$23.00US$18.00n/a11
Apr ’26US$20.09
US$21.32
+6.1%
5.6%US$23.00US$19.00n/a11
Mar ’26US$21.96
US$21.18
-3.5%
5.4%US$23.00US$19.00n/a11
Feb ’26US$20.41
US$21.05
+3.1%
4.7%US$23.00US$19.00n/a11
Jan ’26US$18.30
US$21.45
+17.2%
4.8%US$23.50US$20.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$19.93
US$21.55
+8.1%
4.3%US$23.50US$20.50n/a10
Nov ’25US$18.96
US$21.60
+13.9%
4.2%US$23.50US$20.50n/a10
Oct ’25US$19.65
US$21.65
+10.2%
4.6%US$23.50US$20.50n/a10
Sep ’25US$20.16
US$21.10
+4.7%
5.5%US$23.50US$19.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$19.88
US$20.95
+5.4%
5.1%US$23.50US$19.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$18.66
US$20.58
+10.3%
4.3%US$22.00US$19.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$19.70
US$20.42
+3.6%
4.8%US$22.00US$19.00n/a9
May ’25US$18.97
US$20.42
+7.6%
4.8%US$22.00US$19.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$19.44
US$20.38
+4.8%
4.4%US$21.50US$19.00US$20.098
Mar ’25US$19.29
US$20.38
+5.6%
4.4%US$21.50US$19.00US$21.968
Feb ’25US$19.57
US$20.14
+2.9%
9.4%US$22.00US$16.00US$20.417
Jan ’25US$19.37
US$18.82
-2.8%
9.3%US$21.50US$16.00US$18.307
Dec ’24US$18.50
US$17.54
-5.2%
4.5%US$18.25US$16.00US$19.936
Nov ’24US$16.25
US$17.17
+5.6%
5.2%US$18.00US$16.00US$18.966
Oct ’24US$18.81
US$22.29
+18.5%
5.2%US$24.00US$21.00US$19.657
Sep ’24US$20.36
US$21.69
+6.5%
4.7%US$24.00US$20.50US$20.168
Aug ’24US$20.02
US$21.69
+8.3%
4.7%US$24.00US$20.50US$19.888
Jul ’24US$20.01
US$21.56
+7.8%
4.1%US$23.50US$20.50US$18.668
Jun ’24US$19.43
US$21.56
+11.0%
4.1%US$23.50US$20.50US$19.708
May ’24US$19.32
US$21.89
+13.3%
5.6%US$24.00US$20.00US$18.979
Apr ’24US$19.11
US$22.78
+19.2%
5.7%US$24.50US$20.00US$19.449
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
US$20.56
Fair Value
4.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/29 03:59
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/29 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is covered by 33 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Terry MaBarclays
Bruce HartingBarclays
Derek HewettBofA Global Research