Blackstone (NYSE:BX): Gauging Valuation After $5 Billion Gulf Logistics Platform With Lunate

Blackstone (NYSE:BX) is teaming up with Abu Dhabi’s Lunate to launch a $5 billion platform focused on logistics assets across the Gulf Cooperation Council. This partnership strengthens Blackstone’s position within the region’s fast-evolving infrastructure landscape.

See our latest analysis for Blackstone.

Blackstone’s headline-making partnership with Lunate follows a period of energetic deal-making, including the high-profile Spanx stake and fresh strategic moves around Ancestry.com. Although the share price has been rangebound in recent months, the 1-year total shareholder return of 13.3% reflects resilient investor confidence and momentum building as a result of these strategic initiatives.

If Blackstone’s moves in alternative assets have your attention, it might be the perfect moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Blackstone making ambitious moves and analysts maintaining largely bullish ratings, the key question becomes whether the current share price leaves room for upside or if the market is already accounting for future growth. Is now the time to buy, or has all the good news been priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.2% Undervalued

With Blackstone's last close at $164.91 versus a narrative fair value of $181.68, narrative followers see more upside potential than the market currently prices in. Here’s a direct look at what underpins that optimism.

Blackstone has raised $62 billion of inflows in Q1 2025, marking the highest level in three years. This boosts assets under management (AUM) and gives the company a strong foundation for future revenue growth. The firm is well-positioned to benefit from market dislocation with $177 billion of dry powder available for opportunistic investments, potentially increasing future earnings as capital is deployed in undervalued assets.

Read the complete narrative.

How aggressive are these forecasts? The narrative hangs on blockbuster inflows and margin expansion, but the true story is hidden in assumptions about how Blackstone puts its vast capital to work. Want to see what bold financial leaps justify this fair value?

Result: Fair Value of $181.68 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating construction costs could quickly challenge Blackstone’s growth outlook. These factors may also put pressure on its future earnings trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone narrative.

Another View: Market Price vs. Earnings Reality

While narrative followers believe Blackstone is 9.2% undervalued, our DCF model draws a different conclusion. The SWS DCF model puts fair value at just $55.20, which is significantly below today’s $164.91 price. Is the market factoring in too much future optimism, or is the DCF model too cautious?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Blackstone Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or prefer your own take, exploring the numbers and building your own perspective is quick and straightforward. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Blackstone research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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