Earnings Update: XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at R$4.3b, statutory earnings beat expectations 3.7%, with XP reporting profits of R$2.29 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from XP's ten analysts is for revenues of R$18.9b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.9% to R$9.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$18.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$9.38 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for XP

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$19.71, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on XP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.12 and the most bearish at US$13.06 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of XP'shistorical trends, as the 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 17% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that XP is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.71, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for XP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the XP Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.