Earnings Miss: Vinci Partners Investments Ltd. Missed EPS By 54% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Vinci Partners Investments Ltd. (NASDAQ:VINP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.2% to US$10.25 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenue of R$131m surpassed estimates by 5.2%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 54% below expectations at R$0.51 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vinci Partners Investments

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vinci Partners Investments' four analysts is for revenues of R$518.6m in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 9.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 49% to R$4.78. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$464.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of R$4.44 in 2024. The analysts seem more optimistic after the latest results, with a solid increase in revenue and a small increase to earnings per share estimates.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$12.47, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Vinci Partners Investments analyst has a price target of US$13.98 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.89. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vinci Partners Investments' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Vinci Partners Investments' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.9% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.3% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Vinci Partners Investments to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Vinci Partners Investments' earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$12.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vinci Partners Investments. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Vinci Partners Investments analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Vinci Partners Investments that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.