Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:VCTR) After Its Yearly Results

It's been a good week for Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:VCTR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 7.1% to US$36.77. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$821m and statutory earnings per share of US$3.12. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Victory Capital Holdings after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Victory Capital Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Victory Capital Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of US$877.8m in 2024. This would reflect an okay 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 15% to US$3.80. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$858.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.98 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a an okay to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$41.56, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Victory Capital Holdings at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Victory Capital Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Victory Capital Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Victory Capital Holdings. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Victory Capital Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Victory Capital Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Victory Capital Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.