The Bull Case For StoneCo (STNE) Could Change Following Analyst Upgrades and Sales Growth Outlook

• StoneCo Ltd. was recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) by multiple analyst reports, citing rising consensus earnings estimates and strong sales growth prospects for 2025.
• This heightened analyst focus comes as StoneCo prepares to release third quarter 2025 results, with sales growth highlighted as a key strength despite recent market volatility.
• We'll explore how StoneCo's inclusion among top analyst picks for sales growth may influence its long-term investment outlook.

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StoneCo Investment Narrative Recap

To be a StoneCo shareholder today, you need confidence in Brazil’s ongoing shift from cash to digital finance and continued growth in small business adoption of fintech services. The recent Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) upgrade points to increasing analyst optimism, but its impact on StoneCo's short-term catalyst, the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings report, may be limited, as the most important risk remains slower total payment volume (TPV) growth due to client repricing and macroeconomic headwinds.

Of the recent developments, StoneCo’s Q3 2025 earnings release on November 6 stands out, as it will give investors their first detailed look at whether momentum in sales and profit growth is sustainable given recent upticks in provisions for credit losses. This update will be a critical checkpoint for assessing the balance between expanding higher-margin financial services and the ongoing risks from a soft market among micro and small merchants.

By contrast, investors should be keenly aware of the risk that persistent TPV growth slowdowns could...

Read the full narrative on StoneCo (it's free!)

StoneCo's outlook forecasts R$17.4 billion in revenue and R$5.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on an annual revenue growth rate of 8.2% and a R$6.3 billion increase in earnings from the current R$-1.3 billion.

Uncover how StoneCo's forecasts yield a $19.06 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have published 11 fair value estimates for StoneCo, ranging from R$13.63 to R$41.14 per share. This range sits against concerns of decelerating payment volume growth, an issue the wider market continues to monitor for its effect on future performance.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on StoneCo - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own StoneCo Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your StoneCo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free StoneCo research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate StoneCo's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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