Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.

NasdaqGM:REFI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$299.2m

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Valuation

Is REFI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of REFI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$25.84
Fair Value
41.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: REFI ($15.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: REFI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for REFI?

Key metric: As REFI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for REFI. This is calculated by dividing REFI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is REFI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.8x
EarningsUS$38.52m
Market CapUS$299.23m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does REFI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for REFI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.8x
SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust
9.7x-6.3%US$187.9m
AOMR Angel Oak Mortgage REIT
3.1x-40.6%US$230.2m
LFT Lument Finance Trust
7x13.2%US$129.2m
IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital
7.5x57.0%US$489.5m
REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance
7.7x4.8%US$299.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: REFI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (6.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does REFI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
REFI 7.8xIndustry Avg. 10.3xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: REFI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is REFI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

REFI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.8x
Fair PE Ratio10.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: REFI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst REFI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.17
US$18.67
+23.0%
11.8%US$22.00US$16.00n/a6
Jan ’26US$15.42
US$18.67
+21.1%
11.8%US$22.00US$16.00n/a6
Dec ’25US$16.11
US$18.40
+14.2%
12.7%US$22.00US$16.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$15.03
US$18.40
+22.4%
12.7%US$22.00US$16.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$15.39
US$18.40
+19.6%
12.7%US$22.00US$16.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$15.90
US$18.40
+15.7%
12.7%US$22.00US$16.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$15.79
US$18.60
+17.8%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$15.03
US$18.60
+23.8%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$15.70
US$18.60
+18.5%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
May ’25US$15.83
US$18.60
+17.5%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$15.59
US$18.60
+19.3%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$16.38
US$18.60
+13.6%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$16.16
US$18.60
+15.1%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$16.18
US$18.60
+15.0%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.425
Dec ’24US$15.66
US$18.60
+18.8%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00US$16.115
Nov ’24US$14.09
US$18.60
+32.0%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.035
Oct ’24US$14.72
US$18.60
+26.4%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.395
Sep ’24US$15.21
US$18.60
+22.3%
14.3%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.905
Aug ’24US$15.13
US$19.25
+27.2%
13.4%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.794
Jul ’24US$15.15
US$19.25
+27.1%
13.4%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.034
Jun ’24US$14.75
US$19.25
+30.5%
13.4%US$23.00US$16.00US$15.704
May ’24US$14.04
US$18.80
+33.9%
14.0%US$23.00US$15.00US$15.835
Apr ’24US$13.51
US$18.80
+39.2%
14.0%US$23.00US$15.00US$15.595
Mar ’24US$14.46
US$20.60
+42.5%
8.5%US$23.00US$18.00US$16.385
Feb ’24US$15.25
US$20.60
+35.1%
8.5%US$23.00US$18.00US$16.165
Jan ’24US$15.07
US$20.60
+36.7%
8.5%US$23.00US$18.00US$16.185
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
US$18.67
Fair Value
18.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/10 19:23
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/08 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. is covered by 6 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Aaron GreyAlliance Global Partners
Merrill RossCompass Point Research & Trading, LLC
Aaron HechtJMP Securities