NexPoint Real Estate Finance Valuation
Is NREF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NREF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NREF ($17.03) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($2.36)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NREF is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NREF?
Key metric: As NREF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is NREF's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 13x |
| Earnings | US$22.95m |
| Market Cap | US$376.42m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | 0.5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does NREF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 8.5x | ||
TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust | 12.8x | 14.0% | US$707.3m |
RWT Redwood Trust | 13.3x | 19.7% | US$928.5m |
CIM Chimera Investment | 4.4x | -27.1% | US$1.2b |
MITT AG Mortgage Investment Trust | 3.4x | -31.6% | US$196.2m |
NREF NexPoint Real Estate Finance | 13x | 26.3% | US$376.4m |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NREF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (8.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NREF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?
| 0 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
| 0 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NREF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NREF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 13x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 15.7x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NREF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$17.03 | US$15.75 -7.5% | 4.8% | US$16.50 | US$15.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Nov ’25 | US$14.93 | US$15.75 +5.5% | 4.8% | US$16.50 | US$15.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Oct ’25 | US$15.49 | US$14.00 -9.6% | 3.6% | US$14.50 | US$13.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Sep ’25 | US$16.63 | US$14.50 -12.8% | 5.6% | US$15.50 | US$13.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Aug ’25 | US$14.29 | US$14.33 +0.3% | 5.9% | US$15.50 | US$13.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Jul ’25 | US$13.29 | US$14.33 +7.9% | 5.9% | US$15.50 | US$13.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Jun ’25 | US$14.22 | US$14.33 +0.8% | 5.9% | US$15.50 | US$13.50 | n/a | 3 |
| May ’25 | US$12.95 | US$15.50 +19.7% | 2.6% | US$16.00 | US$15.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Apr ’25 | US$13.45 | US$16.00 +19.0% | 5.1% | US$17.00 | US$15.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Mar ’25 | US$14.83 | US$17.00 +14.6% | 8.3% | US$19.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Feb ’25 | US$14.86 | US$17.33 +16.6% | 7.2% | US$19.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Jan ’25 | US$15.75 | US$17.33 +10.1% | 7.2% | US$19.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Dec ’24 | US$16.69 | US$17.33 +3.9% | 7.2% | US$19.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Nov ’24 | US$15.24 | US$17.33 +13.7% | 7.2% | US$19.00 | US$16.00 | US$14.93 | 3 |
| Oct ’24 | US$16.36 | US$17.67 +8.0% | 5.3% | US$19.00 | US$17.00 | US$15.49 | 3 |
| Sep ’24 | US$17.01 | US$17.67 +3.9% | 5.3% | US$19.00 | US$17.00 | US$16.63 | 3 |
| Aug ’24 | US$17.14 | US$17.67 +3.1% | 5.3% | US$19.00 | US$17.00 | US$14.29 | 3 |
| Jul ’24 | US$15.59 | US$16.33 +4.8% | 5.2% | US$17.50 | US$15.50 | US$13.29 | 3 |
| Jun ’24 | US$13.99 | US$16.33 +16.8% | 5.2% | US$17.50 | US$15.50 | US$14.22 | 3 |
| May ’24 | US$14.41 | US$16.33 +13.3% | 5.2% | US$17.50 | US$15.50 | US$12.95 | 3 |
| Apr ’24 | US$15.67 | US$19.67 +25.5% | 4.8% | US$21.00 | US$19.00 | US$13.45 | 3 |
| Mar ’24 | US$17.71 | US$19.67 +11.0% | 4.8% | US$21.00 | US$19.00 | US$14.83 | 3 |
| Feb ’24 | US$19.33 | US$19.17 -0.8% | 7.5% | US$21.00 | US$17.50 | US$14.86 | 3 |
| Jan ’24 | US$15.89 | US$19.17 +20.6% | 7.5% | US$21.00 | US$17.50 | US$15.75 | 3 |
| Dec ’23 | US$18.76 | US$19.17 +2.2% | 7.5% | US$21.00 | US$17.50 | US$16.69 | 3 |
| Nov ’23 | US$17.62 | US$19.17 +8.8% | 7.5% | US$21.00 | US$17.50 | US$15.24 | 3 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
Discover undervalued companies
Federal Home Loan Mortgage
US$10.4b
Operates in the secondary mortgage market in the United States.
FMCC
US$2.92
7D
0%
1Y
358.8%
ORIX
JP¥3.8t
Provides diversified financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East.
IX
JP¥106.82
7D
-0.9%
1Y
17.5%
FinVolution Group
US$1.6b
Operates in the online consumer finance industry.
FINV
US$6.30
7D
6.1%
1Y
38.8%