Qifu Technology (NasdaqGS:QFIN): Rethinking Valuation After Regulatory Headwinds and Weak Q3 Earnings

Qfin Holdings (NasdaqGS:QFIN) just released third-quarter earnings, and the numbers point to a challenging period for the company. Profit was down as regulatory changes and a softer economy put pressure on its core lending business.

See our latest analysis for Qfin Holdings.

Qfin Holdings’ share price has struggled in 2025, with a 1-month return of -20.64% and shares now at $19.73. This reflects investor anxiety around regulatory headwinds and softer lending demand. Over the longer term, the 5-year total shareholder return of 88.19% shows the story has not always been this turbulent, even as current momentum fades.

If you’re looking for opportunities beyond Qfin’s recent volatility, now is a good moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares trading at a steep discount to analyst price targets, investors are left wondering if Qfin Holdings is undervalued at these levels or if market sentiment already reflects the tougher road ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 58.1% Undervalued

Compared to Qfin Holdings’ most widely followed fair value estimate, the latest closing price appears deeply discounted. The narrative driving this view is rooted in ambitious assumptions about future growth and profitability.

Qfin's ongoing integration of advanced AI and large language models into its risk assessment and user profiling systems is already reducing default rates (for example, FPD 7-day down 5%, improved model KS scores) and improving operational efficiency. This is expected to protect and gradually enhance net margins over the medium and long term.

Read the complete narrative.

What if the secret to this valuation isn’t just about numbers, but about technology redefining financial risk-taking? New algorithms, improved efficiency, and bold forecasts are all part of the picture. Want to unlock what really justifies this price target? Dive in for the full narrative behind the math.

Result: Fair Value of $47.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory uncertainty in China and recent deterioration in asset quality could quickly undermine optimism about Qfin Holdings’ long-term growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Qfin Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Qfin Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can piece together your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Qfin Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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