Stock Analysis

Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:JKHY) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

NasdaqGS:JKHY
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It's been a good week for Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:JKHY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.1% to US$169. Jack Henry & Associates reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$539m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.19, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Jack Henry & Associates

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NasdaqGS:JKHY Earnings and Revenue Growth May 12th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Jack Henry & Associates' 15 analysts is for revenues of US$2.37b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 8.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 11% to US$5.75. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.74 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$181, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Jack Henry & Associates, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$200 and the most bearish at US$170 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jack Henry & Associates' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Jack Henry & Associates'historical trends, as the 6.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that Jack Henry & Associates is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jack Henry & Associates. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jack Henry & Associates analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Jack Henry & Associates' balance sheet, and whether we think Jack Henry & Associates is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.