Assessing Robinhood (HOOD) Valuation After Its 164% One-Year Share Price Surge

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has quietly turned into a big winner for patient investors, with the stock up around 164% over the past year as the business scales and profitability improves.

See our latest analysis for Robinhood Markets.

That momentum has been fueled by improving fundamentals and growing engagement on the platform, with a robust year to date share price return of 244.09% and a powerful 1-year total shareholder return of 263.25% signaling that sentiment has meaningfully shifted in Robinhood’s favor.

If Robinhood’s surge has you rethinking what could run next, it is a good time to scout high growth tech and AI stocks that might be building similar momentum.

With shares now flirting with analyst targets and profitability improving, investors have to ask: Is Robinhood still trading below its true potential, or has the market already priced in the bulk of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.5% Undervalued

With Robinhood Markets last closing at $135.71 against a narrative fair value of $151.55, the most followed view sees further upside still on the table.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $113.086 for Robinhood Markets based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $160.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $50.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies a richer future earnings multiple and robust margins over time, even as growth cools from its breakneck pace? The full narrative unpacks the tug of war between moderating top line expansion, elevated profitability, and a premium valuation multiple that echoes high growth market leaders. Curious which specific earnings and margin trajectories are baked into that fair value, and how sensitive it is to even small shifts in those assumptions? Dive in to see the explicit roadmap behind this 10.5 percent upside case.

Result: Fair Value of $151.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, much depends on sustaining margin strength as compliance and marketing costs rise, and on prediction markets avoiding regulatory or competitive setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this Robinhood Markets narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Step away from the narrative fair value and Robinhood looks far less forgiving. On a price to earnings basis of 55.6 times, the stock trades at more than double both peers at 22.3 times and a fair ratio of 27.3 times, pointing to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Robinhood Markets Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Robinhood Markets research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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