CaliberCos Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CWD) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 27%

CaliberCos Inc. (NASDAQ:CWD) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. But the last month did very little to improve the 55% share price decline over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, CaliberCos may still look like a strong buying opportunity at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, considering almost half of all companies in the Capital Markets industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 3x and even P/S higher than 8x aren't out of the ordinary. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

View our latest analysis for CaliberCos

How CaliberCos Has Been Performing

CaliberCos could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value.

Keen to find out how analysts think CaliberCos' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like CaliberCos' to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 21%. Even so, admirably revenue has lifted 97% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 59% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 6.6%.

With this information, we are not surprised that CaliberCos is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in CaliberCos have risen appreciably however, its P/S is still subdued. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

It's clear to see that CaliberCos maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast for sliding revenue, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless there's material change, it's hard to envision a situation where the stock price will rise drastically.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 5 warning signs for CaliberCos (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.