Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:YUMC) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:YUMC) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$44.04 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.0b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.77 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yum China Holdings' 33 analysts is for revenues of US$11.8b in 2025. This reflects an okay 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.50, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.52 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Yum China Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$59.13, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Yum China Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$76.00 and the most bearish at US$52.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.7% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 10.0% annually. So although Yum China Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yum China Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$59.13, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Yum China Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Yum China Holdings you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.