Xponential Fitness, Inc. Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to US$8.14 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Xponential Fitness delivered a statutory loss of US$0.10 per share. Revenues of US$77m did beat expectations by 2.0% though. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Xponential Fitness. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, Xponential Fitness' ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$319.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Xponential Fitness is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.72 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$319.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Xponential Fitness

The average the analysts price target fell 7.0% to US$13.30, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Xponential Fitness at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Xponential Fitness' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Xponential Fitness' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Xponential Fitness is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Xponential Fitness' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Xponential Fitness' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Xponential Fitness going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Xponential Fitness has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.