Are Universal Technical Institute's (NYSE:UTI) Statutory Earnings A Good Guide To Its Underlying Profitability?

It might be old fashioned, but we really like to invest in companies that make a profit, each and every year. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding Universal Technical Institute (NYSE:UTI).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Universal Technical Institute made a profit of US$1.77m on revenue of US$312.1m. The chart below shows that while revenue has fallen over the last three years, the company has moved from unprofitable to profitable.

See our latest analysis for Universal Technical Institute

Of course, when it comes to statutory profit, the devil is often in the detail, and we can get a better sense for a company by diving deeper into the financial statements. So today we'll examine what Universal Technical Institute's cashflow and its expanding share count tell us about the nature of its profits. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At Universal Technical Institute's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Universal Technical Institute has an accrual ratio of -0.12 for the year to June 2020. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$10m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$1.77m. Notably, Universal Technical Institute had negative free cash flow last year, so the US$10m it produced this year was a welcome improvement. Unfortunately for shareholders, the company has also been issuing new shares, diluting their share of future earnings.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. Universal Technical Institute expanded the number of shares on issue by 27% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. You can see a chart of Universal Technical Institute's EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting Universal Technical Institute's Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Three years ago, Universal Technical Institute lost money. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

In the long term, if Universal Technical Institute's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

Our Take On Universal Technical Institute's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Universal Technical Institute has a strong cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates good quality earnings, but the dilution means its earnings per share are dropping faster than its profit. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that Universal Technical Institute's statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. If you want to do dive deeper into Universal Technical Institute, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Universal Technical Institute.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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