We Think MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 21, 2022
NYSE:MGM
Source: Shutterstock

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for MGM Resorts International

What Is MGM Resorts International's Net Debt?

As you can see below, MGM Resorts International had US$12.8b of debt, at December 2021, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has US$4.70b in cash leading to net debt of about US$8.12b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:MGM Debt to Equity History April 21st 2022

How Healthy Is MGM Resorts International's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that MGM Resorts International had liabilities of US$3.44b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$26.3b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$4.70b in cash and US$857.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$24.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of US$18.9b, we think shareholders really should watch MGM Resorts International's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

While MGM Resorts International's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.7) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 0.76, suggesting high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. However, the silver lining was that MGM Resorts International achieved a positive EBIT of US$564m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if MGM Resorts International can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, MGM Resorts International actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

On the face of it, MGM Resorts International's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its interest cover was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making MGM Resorts International stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with MGM Resorts International (including 2 which are potentially serious) .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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