MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MGM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MGM ($30.61) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($0.72)

MGM fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

MGM Stock Overview

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (3.8x) is below the US market (13.6x)

Became profitable this year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 41% per year for the next 3 years

Large one-off items impacting financial results

MGM Resorts International Competitors

Churchill Downs

NasdaqGS:CHDN

US$6.9b

Boyd Gaming

NYSE:BYD

US$5.2b

Red Rock Resorts

NasdaqGS:RRR

US$3.6b

PENN Entertainment

NasdaqGS:PENN

US$4.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for MGM Resorts International
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$30.61
52 Week High	US$51.17
52 Week Low	US$26.41
Beta	2.11
1 Month Change	-6.85%
3 Month Change	0.82%
1 Year Change	-31.23%
3 Year Change	12.33%
5 Year Change	-0.65%
Change since IPO	683.62%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 28

MGM Resorts and ExteNet Systems enter national connectivity partnership

ExteNet Systems has announced a groundbreaking partnership with MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) to design, build and operate ExteNet's advanced in-building signal and connectivity solutions across all MGM properties throughout the U.S. Through this partnership, MGM properties will offer guests unparalleled mobile connectivity with next-generation wireless infrastructure. The addition of greater connectivity will further enhance MGM's world-class offerings for guests and support upcoming plans and development with future-ready solutions. Properties are projected to be completed between fall 2022 through fall 2024 in advance of the Formula One World Championship in November 2023 and Super Bowl LVIII in February 2024. Already a leader in the Las Vegas market, ExteNet's partnership with MGM will strengthen the Company's position as a coverage and service leader in more than ten prime locations in the area.

Sep 07

MGM Resorts goes ex-dividend tomorrow

MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) had declared $0.0025/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Payable Sept. 15; for shareholders of record Sept. 9; ex-div Sept. 8. See MGM Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Aug 23

BetMGM and SportsGrid expand multi-year betting content deal

MGM Resorts' (NYSE:MGM) BetMGM expands its partnership with sports wagering streaming video network- SportsGrid- through multi-year, multi-platform agreement. The sports betting and iGaming operator stated Tuesday that under this multi-year deal its trading team and experts will provide insight to SportsGrid during various broadcasts including Ferrall Coast to Coast, Pro Football Today and In-Game Live Primetime. Sharp's live reports also will also be distributed over SportsGrid's multi-media content platforms. Now Read: Las Vegas casino stocks are called good bets to ride out economic downturn

Shareholder Returns

	MGM	US Hospitality	US Market
7D	2.1%	0.6%	1.0%
1Y	-31.2%	-32.1%	-20.0%

Return vs Industry: MGM exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -34.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MGM underperformed the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MGM's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MGM volatility
MGM Average Weekly Movement	5.6%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement	7.3%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: MGM is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MGM's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1986	60,500	Bill Hornbuckle	https://www.mgmresorts.com

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau. The company operates through three segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its casino resorts offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities.

MGM Resorts International Fundamentals Summary

How do MGM Resorts International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MGM fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$12.03b
Earnings (TTM)	US$3.19b
Revenue (TTM)	US$11.77b

3.8x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Is MGM overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MGM income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$11.77b
Cost of Revenue	US$5.92b
Gross Profit	US$5.85b
Other Expenses	US$2.65b
Earnings	US$3.19b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	8.13
Gross Margin	49.68%
Net Profit Margin	27.14%
Debt/Equity Ratio	113.8%

How did MGM perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.03%

Current Dividend Yield

0.141%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MGM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MGM. This is calculated by dividing MGM's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MGM's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$12.03b

MGM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19x
PEG Ratio	-0.09x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MGM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MGM PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MGM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13x
CHDN Churchill Downs	14.2x	10.3%	US$6.9b
BYD Boyd Gaming	9.3x	-7.0%	US$5.2b
RRR Red Rock Resorts	7.2x	6.5%	US$3.6b
PENN PENN Entertainment	21.2x	23.6%	US$4.4b
MGM MGM Resorts International	3.8x	-41.0%	US$12.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the peer average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MGM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (16.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.8x
Fair PE Ratio	14.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MGM ($30.61) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($0.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGM is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is MGM Resorts International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-41.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MGM's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-41% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MGM's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-41% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MGM's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MGM's revenue (6.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MGM's revenue (6.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MGM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.6%).

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Past Performance

How has MGM Resorts International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-7.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MGM has a large one-off gain of $3.8B impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: MGM became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MGM's earnings have declined by 7.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MGM has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: MGM has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (36.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst MGM's Return on Equity (41.44%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is MGM Resorts International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MGM's short term assets ($9.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: MGM's short term assets ($9.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($35.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MGM's net debt to equity ratio (35.1%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: MGM's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 128.3% to 113.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MGM's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (23.2%).

Interest Coverage: MGM's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is MGM Resorts International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.032%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

MGM Resorts International Dividend Yield vs Market

How does MGM Resorts International dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (MGM Resorts International)	0.03%
Market Bottom 25% (US)	1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)	4.6%
Industry Average (Hospitality)	2.0%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (MGM Resorts International)	0.1%

Notable Dividend: MGM's dividend (0.032%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.67%).

High Dividend: MGM's dividend (0.032%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.75%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MGM is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: MGM is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: MGM is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: MGM is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Bill Hornbuckle (64 yo)

2.25yrs

Tenure

US$13,274,524

Compensation

Mr. William Joseph Hornbuckle, IV, also known as Bill, has been Executive Chairperson of MGM China Holdings Limited since March 26, 2020. Mr. Hornbuckle had been a Director of PLAYSTUDIOS, Inc. since June...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Bill Hornbuckle's Compensation vs MGM Resorts International Earnings

How has Bill Hornbuckle's remuneration changed compared to MGM Resorts International's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	n/a	n/a	US$3b
Mar 31 2022	n/a	n/a	US$1b
Dec 31 2021	US$13m	US$2m	US$1b
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	US$615m
Jun 30 2021	n/a	n/a	-US$1b
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	-US$2b
Dec 31 2020	US$14m	US$1m	-US$997m
Sep 30 2020	n/a	n/a	US$1b
Jun 30 2020	n/a	n/a	US$2b
Mar 31 2020	n/a	n/a	US$3b
Dec 31 2019	US$6m	US$1m	US$2b
Sep 30 2019	n/a	n/a	US$2m
Jun 30 2019	n/a	n/a	US$181m
Mar 31 2019	n/a	n/a	US$254m
Dec 31 2018	US$6m	US$1m	US$445m
Sep 30 2018	n/a	n/a	US$2b
Jun 30 2018	n/a	n/a	US$2b
Mar 31 2018	n/a	n/a	US$2b
Dec 31 2017	US$7m	US$1m	US$2b
Sep 30 2017	n/a	n/a	US$589m
Jun 30 2017	n/a	n/a	US$976m
Mar 31 2017	n/a	n/a	US$1b
Dec 31 2016	US$6m	US$1m	US$1b
Sep 30 2016	n/a	n/a	US$295m
Jun 30 2016	n/a	n/a	-US$174m
Mar 31 2016	n/a	n/a	-US$551m
Dec 31 2015	US$6m	US$1m	-US$448m

Compensation vs Market: Bill's total compensation ($USD13.27M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.04M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bill's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MGM's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MGM's board of directors are considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MGM insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:MGM Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Shares	Max Price
25 Aug 22	BuyUS$498,784	Janet Swartz	Individual	14,230	US$35.05
23 Aug 22	BuyUS$1,758,351	IAC Inc.	Company	51,100	US$34.41
22 Aug 22	BuyUS$9,998,763	IAC Inc.	Company	291,700	US$34.79
18 Aug 22	BuyUS$9,996,935	IAC Inc.	Company	283,400	US$35.28
16 Aug 22	BuyUS$9,996,840	IAC Inc.	Company	279,800	US$35.96
12 Aug 22	BuyUS$9,994,608	IAC Inc.	Company	283,700	US$35.36
10 Aug 22	SellUS$154,811	Daniel Taylor	Individual	4,499	US$34.41
13 Jun 22	BuyUS$997,695	Paul Salem	Individual	34,500	US$28.92
25 May 22	BuyUS$109,370	Paul Salem	Individual	3,500	US$31.25
23 Feb 22	SellUS$141,765	Alexis Herman	Individual	3,250	US$43.62
22 Feb 22	SellUS$364,946	Mary Jammet	Individual	8,440	US$43.24
17 Feb 22	BuyUS$248,387	Janet Swartz	Individual	5,628	US$44.13
14 Feb 22	BuyUS$202,500,000	IAC Inc.	Company	4,500,000	US$45.00
14 Feb 22	SellUS$202,500,000	Corvex Management LP	Company	4,500,000	US$45.00
08 Nov 21	SellUS$162,134	Alexis Herman	Individual	3,200	US$50.67
08 Nov 21	SellUS$300,840	Todd Meinert	Individual	6,000	US$50.14
08 Nov 21	SellUS$350,260	John McManus	Individual	7,000	US$50.04

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of MGM?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
State or Government	155,145	0.04%
Individual Insiders	13,110,037	3.3%
General Public	16,121,429	4.1%
Private Companies	20,898,738	5.3%
Public Companies	64,723,602	16.5%
Institutions	278,093,196	70.7%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 70.93% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
16.46%	IAC Inc.	64,723,602	$2.0b	1.87%	no data
9.77%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	38,404,663	$1.2b	-8.12%	0.03%
6.16%	BlackRock, Inc.	24,198,589	$740.7m	-4.72%	0.02%
5.32%	Dubai World Corporation	20,898,738	$639.7m	0%	no data
5.2%	T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.	20,424,636	$625.2m	19.43%	0.07%
3.45%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	13,573,505	$415.5m	-9.2%	0.02%
2.93%	Fred Alger Management, LLC	11,500,421	$352.0m	11.83%	1.63%
2.67%	Chiu Ho	10,505,580	$321.6m	0%	no data
1.76%	CPP Investments	6,911,523	$211.6m	-20.5%	0.29%
1.74%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	6,842,146	$209.4m	-4.28%	0.03%
1.7%	Corvex Management LP	6,673,778	$204.3m	0%	10.63%
1.41%	Southeastern Asset Management, Inc.	5,535,635	$169.4m	-3.08%	3%
1.3%	Orbis Investment Management Limited	5,094,995	$156.0m	-27.19%	0.68%
1.18%	BNP Paribas, Private & Investment Banking Investments	4,634,920	$141.9m	0%	0.97%
1.04%	Massachusetts Financial Services Company	4,098,554	$125.5m	0%	0.03%
0.99%	Allianz Asset Management AG	3,902,873	$119.5m	-2.91%	0.1%
0.98%	Citadel Advisors LLC	3,851,459	$117.9m	-18.28%	0.18%
0.96%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	3,783,928	$115.8m	-2.17%	0.03%
0.93%	Invesco Capital Management LLC	3,672,197	$112.4m	9.83%	0.09%
0.91%	SRS Investment Management, LLC	3,588,718	$109.9m	-37.04%	2.1%
0.89%	Norges Bank Investment Management	3,493,350	$106.9m	0%	0.01%
0.86%	Northern Trust Global Investments	3,387,362	$103.7m	-6.67%	0.02%
0.78%	Senvest Management, LLC	3,054,998	$93.5m	1.75%	2.96%
0.77%	Eaton Vance Management	3,033,617	$92.9m	2.44%	0.04%
0.77%	Westfield Capital Management Company, L.P.	3,023,646	$92.6m	-10.78%	0.72%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
MGM	NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)	Yes	Common Stock	US	USD	May 1988
MGM *	BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)	Yes	Common Stock	MX	MXN	May 1988
MGG	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Stock	DE	EUR	May 1988
0JWC	LSE (London Stock Exchange)	Yes	Common Stock	GB	USD	May 1988
M1GM34	BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)		BDR EACH REPR 1 COM USD0.01	BR	BRL	Jan 2020

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/10/03 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31