Stride (LRN) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Rebound

Stride (LRN) has been quietly grinding higher, with the stock up about 3% in the past day and 6% over the past week, even as longer term returns look much rougher.

See our latest analysis for Stride.

The recent pop takes the share price to $65.82, but that comes after a bruising 90 day share price return of around negative 52 percent and a one year total shareholder return near negative 39 percent, even though long term total shareholder returns remain strongly positive.

If you are weighing whether Stride’s drop and rebound signal opportunity or risk, it can help to compare it with other education focused names and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares trading at roughly a 20% intrinsic discount and nearly 30% below average analyst targets, yet facing slowing top line growth, the central question is whether Stride is a bargain or if markets already anticipate its future expansion.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 43% Undervalued

With Stride last closing at $65.82 against a narrative fair value near $115.50, the disconnect is striking and centers on how future earnings compound.

Analysts are assuming Stride's revenue will grow by 9.3% annually over the next 3 years.

Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.0% today to 16.7% in 3 years time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady, mid range growth assumptions can still map to such a steep upside gap? The answer lies in the margin glide path and the future multiple baked into this narrative, not just headline enrollment trends.

Result: Fair Value of $115.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, several legal and platform execution setbacks could still derail enrollment momentum and margin gains, which would challenge the optimistic upside implied by this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Stride narrative.

Build Your Own Stride Narrative

If this storyline does not quite fit your view, or you would rather dive into the numbers yourself, you can assemble a personalized Stride outlook in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Stride research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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