Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) Annual Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like a pretty negative result overall with revenues of US$1.9b coming in 12% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$8.46 per share, 19% larger than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Carnival Corporation &

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Carnival Corporation & from 17 analysts is for revenues of US$16.4b in 2022 which, if met, would be a major 757% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 89% to US$0.93. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$16.4b and losses of US$1.11 per share in 2022. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Carnival Corporation &'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a favorable reduction in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The average price target held steady at US$26.86, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Carnival Corporation & analyst has a price target of US$39.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Carnival Corporation & is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 8x annualised growth until the end of 2022. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 24% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% per year. Not only are Carnival Corporation &'s revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Carnival Corporation & going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Carnival Corporation & that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.