What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after investigating Aramark (NYSE:ARMK), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on Aramark is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.054 = US$676m ÷ (US$15b - US$3.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).
Therefore, Aramark has an ROCE of 5.4%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 9.1%.
Check out our latest analysis for Aramark
In the above chart we have measured Aramark's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Aramark here for free.
SWOT Analysis for Aramark
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
So How Is Aramark's ROCE Trending?
Things have been pretty stable at Aramark, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. So unless we see a substantial change at Aramark in terms of ROCE and additional investments being made, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger.
The Key Takeaway
In a nutshell, Aramark has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. And with the stock having returned a mere 17% in the last five years to shareholders, you could argue that they're aware of these lackluster trends. So if you're looking for a multi-bagger, the underlying trends indicate you may have better chances elsewhere.
On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for Aramark that we think you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ARMK
Aramark
Provides food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, sports, leisure, and corrections clients in the United States and internationally.
Second-rate dividend payer with limited growth.
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