Trip.com Group (TCOM) Is Down 11.3% After Slowing Q2 Outlook And China Antitrust Uncertainty - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In late June 2026, Trip.com Group reported first-quarter net income of CNY 2,499 million, with net revenues up 17% year over year, and guided for a much slower 3% to 8% net revenue increase in the second quarter amid macroeconomic and regulatory pressures.
• An additional layer of uncertainty comes from Trip.com’s cooperation with an ongoing anti-monopoly investigation in China, even as international and inbound travel bookings showed strong momentum in the first quarter.
• With Trip.com now forecasting a sharp slowdown in second-quarter revenue growth, we’ll examine how this softer outlook reshapes its investment narrative.

Find 41 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Trip.com Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own Trip.com Group, you have to believe in the long-term shift toward digital travel booking in Asia-Pacific and Trip.com’s ability to capture both outbound and inbound demand. In the near term, the key catalyst is execution on international and inbound growth, while the biggest risk is regulatory pressure in China. The Q2 guidance slowdown and the anti-monopoly probe both directly reinforce that regulatory risk but do not yet overturn the broader digital travel thesis.

Among recent announcements, Trip.com’s disclosure that it is cooperating with an anti-monopoly investigation by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation feels most relevant here. Management has already adjusted parts of its transportation business and emphasized governance, which ties directly into the main risk that tighter regulation could limit monetization of rail, air and other value-added services, potentially muting the impact of otherwise healthy travel demand on near term revenue and earnings.

Yet even as travel demand holds up, investors should be aware that intensifying regulatory scrutiny could...

Read the full narrative on Trip.com Group (it's free!)

Trip.com Group's narrative projects CN¥86.1 billion revenue and CN¥18.5 billion earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Trip.com Group's forecasts yield a $61.65 fair value, a 50% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already assuming earnings could drop to about CN¥16.9 billion by 2029, and this new 3% to 8% guidance plus rising regulatory constraints could push their already cautious view on regulatory driven margin pressure even further, so it is worth weighing that more pessimistic scenario alongside more optimistic expectations before deciding what this stock means for your own portfolio.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Trip.com Group - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Trip.com Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Trip.com Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Trip.com Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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