Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) Valuation Check After Antitrust And Securities Investigations

Trip.com Group (TCOM) is back in focus after disclosing an antitrust investigation by Chinese market regulators, with several law firms, including Rosen Law Firm, launching probes into potential securities claims for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Trip.com Group.

After the January 14 disclosure of the antitrust probe, when Trip.com Group’s American Depositary Shares dropped 17% in a single session, the stock’s recent 30 day share price return of 14.49% and year to date share price return of 27.82% decline contrast with a stronger 3 year total shareholder return of 51.94%. This suggests that recent momentum has faded while longer term holders still have positive overall results.

If this kind of regulatory shock has you reassessing your watchlist, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our screener of 22 top founder-led companies.

With Trip.com Group trading below some valuation estimates, yet facing an active antitrust probe and securities investigations, is the current weakness a potential entry point or is the market already adjusting for slower growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 38.3% Undervalued

Trip.com Group’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $87.08 versus a last close of $53.77, framing the stock as materially below that estimate while the antitrust probe keeps sentiment unsettled.

Ongoing investment in proprietary artificial intelligence, personalized recommendation engines, and integrated "one-stop" trip planning tools (like Trip.Planner and Intelli-Trip) is driving higher user engagement, stronger repeat bookings, and better operating leverage, supporting margin expansion and increased customer lifetime value.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans on solid revenue growth, firm margins, and a richer earnings profile over time. Result: Fair Value of $87.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside story could be challenged if the antitrust probe leads to tougher terms with partners, or if rising competition forces heavier marketing and promotional spending.

Find out about the key risks to this Trip.com Group narrative.

Next Steps

With a mix of concern around the probe and optimism in the valuation story, it makes sense to move fast and check the full picture for yourself. You can weigh both sides of the argument by reviewing our summary of 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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