Stock Analysis

Investors in Trip.com Group (NASDAQ:TCOM) have unfortunately lost 63% over the last five years

NasdaqGS:TCOM
Source: Shutterstock

We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. Zooming in on an example, the Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) share price dropped 63% in the last half decade. That's not a lot of fun for true believers. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 44% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 28% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

View our latest analysis for Trip.com Group

Trip.com Group isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over half a decade Trip.com Group reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 2.9% for each year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price decline of 10% compound, over five years, is understandable given the company is losing money, and revenue is moving in the wrong direction. We don't think anyone is rushing to buy this stock. Not that many investors like to invest in companies that are losing money and not growing revenue.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:TCOM Earnings and Revenue Growth May 15th 2022

Trip.com Group is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Trip.com Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Trip.com Group shareholders are down 44% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Trip.com Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Trip.com Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NasdaqGS:TCOM

Trip.com Group

Through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally.

Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.