Is Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At The Intrinsic Value

How far off is Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, I am going to take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in April 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below. See our latest analysis for Starbucks

The calculation

I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.

5-year cash flow estimate

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Levered FCF ($, Millions) $2,894.11 $3,209.20 $3,544.00 $4,546.00 $5,088.00
Source Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1
Present Value Discounted @ 9.03% $2,654.52 $2,699.83 $2,734.66 $3,217.43 $3,302.91

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $14,609

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.5%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $5,088 × (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (9% – 2.5%) = $79,525

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = $79,525 / ( 1 + 9%)5 = $51,625

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is $66,234. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $47.12, which, compared to the current share price of $57.71, we find that Starbucks is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.

NasdaqGS:SBUX Intrinsic Value Apr 26th 18
NasdaqGS:SBUX Intrinsic Value Apr 26th 18

Important assumptions

I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Starbucks as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.871. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For SBUX, I’ve put together three essential factors you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does SBUX have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does SBUX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of SBUX? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NASDAQ every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.