Stock Analysis

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) shareholders are up 14% this past week, but still in the red over the last five years

NasdaqGS:RRGB
Source: Shutterstock

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 81%. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

While the last five years has been tough for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over five years, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers grew its revenue at 3.6% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. Nonetheless, it's fair to say the rapidly declining share price (down 13%, compound, over five years) suggests the market is very disappointed with this level of growth. While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. We'd recommend focussing any further research on the likelihood of profitability in the foreseeable future, given the muted revenue growth.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:RRGB Earnings and Revenue Growth January 26th 2025

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers shareholders are down 39% for the year, but the market itself is up 27%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 13% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Red Robin Gourmet Burgers .

But note: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.