Papa John's International Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Papa John's International's revenue is forecast to decline at 2.7% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 38.6% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 38.9% per annum.
Key information
38.6%
Earnings growth rate
38.94%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality earnings growth | 18.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | -2.7% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 10 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 05
PZZA: Takeover Saga And Traffic Reset Will Shape Balanced Risk Profile
Analysts have adjusted their views on Papa John's International with a mixed pattern of price target changes, including cuts to $34, $35, $40 and $50 and at least one $4 increase. They are weighing recent earnings pressure in North America against ongoing takeover speculation and updated profit expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 20
PZZA: Takeover Speculation Will Clash With Softer Margins And Traffic Headwinds
Papa John's International's analyst fair value estimate has been trimmed by $2 to $32 as analysts weigh softer profit margin assumptions and slightly weaker revenue growth against higher assumed future P/E multiples and ongoing takeover speculation that has kept Street price targets clustered in the mid $30s to $50 range. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a split view on Papa John's International, with some firms pointing to potential corporate activity supporting the share price, while a series of target cuts signals more cautious expectations on execution and growth.Seeking Alpha • Apr 09
Papa John's: Cheap Enough To Consider Despite Dividend Cut Risks
Summary Papa John’s is rated Buy, driven by attractive valuation, turnaround potential, and takeover interest amid macro headwinds. PZZA targets $60M in supply chain cost savings, portfolio right-sizing, and international expansion to offset North American weakness. The ongoing $47/share takeover offer could spark a bidding war, highlighting latent value despite operational and macro challenges. Risks include high leverage, dividend sustainability, and persistent consumer weakness, but risk-reward skews positive at current levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 06
PZZA: Takeover Bid Will Anchor Sentiment Despite Softer Sales Outlook
The analyst price target for Papa John's has been revised lower to about $49.71 from $67.00, as analysts weigh softer revenue growth assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, modestly higher profit margins, a reduced future P/E, and ongoing takeover speculation alongside mixed recent earnings commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Papa John's has leaned more cautious overall, but there are still some clear areas of optimism that investors are watching closely.
Narrative Update • Mar 23
PZZA: Takeover Bid And AI Ordering Initiatives Will Shape Traffic Reset
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Papa John's has been reset lower to reflect reduced Street targets in the $34 to $50 range, as well as ongoing concerns around softer North America comps, menu simplification headwinds and recent private equity takeover speculation that has helped support the shares near the reported $47 offer level. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Papa John's reflects a mix of interest around potential takeover activity and concern about fundamentals, particularly North America performance and menu changes.Narrative Update • Mar 09
PZZA: AI Ordering Initiatives Will Offset Traffic Reset And Menu Challenges
The analyst price target for Papa John's International has been reduced by about $9 per share to roughly $38. This reflects analysts' updated views on softer revenue growth, slimmer profit margins, and a slightly higher discount rate, while long-term P/E expectations remain largely unchanged.Narrative Update • Feb 23
PZZA: AI Partnership And Softer Expectations Will Shape Future Share Returns
The analyst price target for Papa John's International has been revised from $40 to $34 as analysts factor in slightly weaker revenue trends, a modestly higher discount rate, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple, partly informed by recent cautious resets across the restaurant group. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reflect a more cautious stance on Papa John's International, with several bearish analysts trimming valuation assumptions and highlighting execution risks relative to the broader restaurant group.Narrative Update • Feb 08
PZZA: Take Private Speculation And AI Rollout Will Drive Future Upside
Narrative Update Analysts have trimmed their Papa John's International price targets by a few dollars, bringing fair value estimates to about $46.73 as they factor in slightly softer near term revenue expectations, a modestly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E, partly offset by small improvements in projected profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Papa John's International has focused on valuation resets, competitive pressures in quick service restaurants, and the implications of its technology partnerships for long term execution.Narrative Update • Jan 25
PZZA: Take Private Speculation And Tech Partnership Will Shape Future Returns
Narrative Update Analysts have cut their price target on Papa John's International to US$40 from US$44, citing a mixed read on sector pricing pressures and recent tech partnership economics, even as margin and revenue trend assumptions in the model remain broadly unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent research has leaned cautious on Papa John's International, with price targets reset lower and the stock sitting at a Neutral stance in at least one fresh update.Narrative Update • Jan 11
PZZA: Take Private Speculation Will Drive Future Upside Despite Softer Fundamentals
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Papa John's to around $40 to $50 per share, reflecting higher assumed discount rates, modestly softer revenue and margin expectations, and a higher future P/E, while also acknowledging that ongoing take private speculation means the stock may trade less on fundamentals in the near term. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Papa John's highlights a split between deal driven views and those focused on day to day fundamentals, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they reassess where the shares should trade.Narrative Update • Dec 26
PZZA: Take Private Speculation Will Drive Shares As Fundamentals Regain Focus
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Papa John's International from $42.00 to $40.00 per share, as heightened take private speculation, including reported bids around $64, leads them to emphasize improving profit margins and a lower future P/E, alongside more cautious expectations for top line growth. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts highlight that recent deal speculation is increasingly driving trading in the shares, reducing the relevance of near term operating results and traditional valuation metrics.Narrative Update • Dec 12
PZZA: Take Private Speculation Will Drive Upside From Ongoing Buyout Rumors
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Papa John's International to about $50 per share from roughly $48, citing sustained strategic interest and heightened take private speculation. They believe these factors now overshadow near term fundamentals.Narrative Update • Nov 28
PZZA: Ongoing Buyout Activity Will Drive Share Price Momentum Forward
Analysts have lowered their price target on Papa John's International from $49.30 to $47.80, citing declining growth and earnings outlooks. Recent buyout speculation has shifted the focus away from company fundamentals.Narrative Update • Nov 07
PZZA: Ongoing Deal Speculation Will Drive Momentum Despite Withdrawn Take-Private Bid
Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Papa John's International to $49.30 from $52.10 per share. This adjustment is due to tempered assumptions for revenue growth, despite improvements in profit margins and ongoing deal speculation impacting the stock's outlook.Analysis Article • Nov 04
Papa John's International (NASDAQ:PZZA) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.46
Papa John's International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) will pay a dividend of $0.46 on the 28th of November. Based on this...Narrative Update • Aug 08
Rising Costs And Shifting Tastes Will Squeeze Margins
Despite lower revenue growth forecasts, the consensus price target for Papa John's International has increased, driven by a notable improvement in net profit margin, raising fair value from $47.10 to $49.90. What's in the News Papa John's added to the Russell 2000 Dynamic Index.Analysis Article • Aug 07
Papa John's International (NASDAQ:PZZA) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.46
Papa John's International, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.46 per share on 29th of...Analysis Article • Jul 29
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Papa John's International, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA)?
While Papa John's International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the...Analysis Article • Jun 02
Even With A 27% Surge, Cautious Investors Are Not Rewarding Papa John's International, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PZZA) Performance Completely
Those holding Papa John's International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) shares would be relieved that the share price has...Analysis Article • Apr 29
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Papa John's International, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Papa John's International fair value estimate is US$36.21...Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
Papa John's Delivers A Slice Of Stability In An Uncertain Market
Summary Papa John's margin transfer strategy and aggressive growth make it a compelling defensive investment, with a 5.9% dividend yield and strong countercyclical potential. Short-term margin sacrifices aim to boost volumes and market share, enhancing long-term operating margins and loyalty by 2028. Despite economic uncertainty, Papa John's focuses on value offerings and incentivizing franchise expansion, expecting structural improvements and market share gains. Papa John's' strategic investments in technology and marketing, along with a robust dividend yield, make it a solid addition to a defensive income portfolio. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 08
Papa John's International, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA) Stock's 27% Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny
Papa John's International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a...Seeking Alpha • Mar 22
Papa John's: Another Correction Is Just Too Much
Summary Papa John's International, Inc. remains resilient amid inflationary headwinds due to its strategic focus on franchising and impressive liquidity. PZZA's strategic business portfolio split, with a high concentration on franchisees, supports consistent revenue streams and lowers capital intensity, aiding in market volatility management. Despite a weaker performance in FY24, PZZA's efficient cost management and positive cash inflows position it well for potential market changes in FY25. Technical indicators suggest buying opportunities, with the stock remaining undervalued and potential upside to $53.51, making PZZA a buy recommendation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 04
Papa John's: Papa Rewards Overhaul Already Paying Off
Summary Papa John's is undergoing a turnaround with improvements in its loyalty program and a focus on 1P channels, showing positive short-term results. Despite ongoing acquisition talks with Irth Capital, the company's transformation efforts are paying off, with better traffic and increased Papa Rewards redemptions. Papa John's aims to simplify its menu and reduce construction costs to attract more franchisees and compete effectively with other QSR pizza chains. I maintain a 'Buy' rating at $64, with the potential for a 'Strong Buy' if the price drops to the early-$40s, anticipating sequential improvements in FY 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 21
Investors Appear Satisfied With Papa John's International, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PZZA) Prospects As Shares Rocket 30%
Those holding Papa John's International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) shares would be relieved that the share price has...Seeking Alpha • Feb 17
Papa John's: A Tasty Investment, Even Without A Buyout
Summary Papa John's stock surged on buyout rumors, adding a new catalyst to an already promising investment thesis focused on a potential turnaround and consumer spending recovery. The stock remains undervalued despite recent gains, with a possible acquisition price of $70 per share, offering a 42% premium. Previous acquisition attempts and interest from major investors highlight Papa John's attractiveness, but the deal's uncertainty warrants a Buy rating. Upcoming earnings could provide further upside, with expectations of a double-beat driven by loyalty program enhancements and strategic adjustments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 31
Papa John's International (NASDAQ:PZZA) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.46
Papa John's International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PZZA ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.46 per share on the...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,926 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,883 | 58 | 82 | 149 | 15 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,920 | 47 | 73 | 140 | 15 |
| 3/29/2026 | 2,014 | 28 | 26 | 102 | N/A |
| 12/28/2025 | 2,054 | 30 | 52 | 126 | N/A |
| 9/28/2025 | 2,086 | 37 | 79 | 157 | N/A |
| 6/29/2025 | 2,085 | 75 | 57 | 132 | N/A |
| 3/30/2025 | 2,064 | 78 | 54 | 126 | N/A |
| 12/29/2024 | 2,059 | 83 | 34 | 107 | N/A |
| 9/29/2024 | 2,100 | 95 | 49 | 122 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,116 | 69 | 70 | 141 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,123 | 74 | 93 | 164 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,136 | 82 | 116 | 193 | N/A |
| 9/24/2023 | 2,091 | 79 | 87 | 168 | N/A |
| 6/25/2023 | 2,078 | 72 | 84 | 166 | N/A |
| 3/26/2023 | 2,086 | 79 | 47 | 133 | N/A |
| 12/25/2022 | 2,102 | 67 | 39 | 118 | N/A |
| 9/25/2022 | 2,105 | 68 | -8 | 68 | N/A |
| 6/26/2022 | 2,107 | 89 | 24 | 102 | N/A |
| 3/27/2022 | 2,099 | -16 | 75 | 147 | N/A |
| 12/26/2021 | 2,068 | 4 | 116 | 185 | N/A |
| 9/26/2021 | 2,009 | -11 | 159 | 212 | N/A |
| 6/27/2021 | 1,970 | -29 | 183 | 227 | N/A |
| 3/28/2021 | 1,915 | 67 | 179 | 216 | N/A |
| 12/27/2020 | 1,813 | 42 | 151 | 186 | N/A |
| 9/27/2020 | 1,761 | 27 | 146 | 180 | N/A |
| 6/28/2020 | 1,692 | 12 | 84 | 117 | N/A |
| 3/29/2020 | 1,631 | 1 | 47 | 82 | N/A |
| 12/29/2019 | 1,619 | -8 | N/A | 62 | N/A |
| 9/29/2019 | 1,599 | -15 | N/A | 37 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 1,581 | -25 | N/A | 51 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 1,611 | -19 | N/A | 70 | N/A |
| 12/30/2018 | 1,663 | 2 | N/A | 92 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1,733 | 44 | N/A | 125 | N/A |
| 7/1/2018 | 1,779 | 79 | N/A | 131 | N/A |
| 4/1/2018 | 1,784 | 92 | N/A | 124 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 1,783 | 103 | N/A | 135 | N/A |
| 9/24/2017 | 1,755 | 108 | N/A | 144 | N/A |
| 6/25/2017 | 1,746 | 107 | N/A | 149 | N/A |
| 3/26/2017 | 1,734 | 106 | N/A | 164 | N/A |
| 12/25/2016 | 1,714 | 103 | N/A | 150 | N/A |
| 9/25/2016 | 1,691 | 95 | N/A | 162 | N/A |
| 6/26/2016 | 1,658 | 91 | N/A | 162 | N/A |
| 3/27/2016 | 1,634 | 80 | N/A | 154 | N/A |
| 12/27/2015 | 1,637 | 75 | N/A | 170 | N/A |
| 9/27/2015 | 1,646 | 72 | N/A | 158 | N/A |
| 6/28/2015 | 1,647 | 70 | N/A | 146 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PZZA's forecast earnings growth (38.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: PZZA's earnings (38.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: PZZA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PZZA's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-2.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PZZA's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.7% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PZZA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 08:23 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/29 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/28 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Papa John's International, Inc. is covered by 25 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Todd Brooks | Benchmark Company |
| Andrew Strelzik | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Sara Senatore | BofA Global Research |