Papa John's International, Inc.

NasdaqGS:PZZA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.3b

Papa John's International Valuation

Is PZZA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PZZA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$126.91
Fair Value
69.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: PZZA ($39.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($126.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PZZA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PZZA?

Key metric: As PZZA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PZZA. This is calculated by dividing PZZA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PZZA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.5x
EarningsUS$94.78m
Market CapUS$1.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PZZA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PZZA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average45.1x
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
35.7x26.9%US$1.4b
DNUT Krispy Kreme
55.1x-22.3%US$1.6b
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group
61.5x16.3%US$1.3b
BJRI BJ's Restaurants
28x9.0%US$833.5m
PZZA Papa John's International
13.5x10.8%US$1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PZZA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (45.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PZZA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
PZZA 13.5xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PZZA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PZZA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PZZA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.5x
Fair PE Ratio19.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PZZA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PZZA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.08
US$57.16
+46.3%
16.6%US$72.00US$42.00n/a14
Jan ’26US$41.07
US$60.73
+47.9%
11.8%US$73.00US$45.00n/a14
Dec ’25US$49.83
US$60.73
+21.9%
11.8%US$73.00US$45.00n/a14
Nov ’25US$55.26
US$57.94
+4.9%
16.4%US$76.00US$45.00n/a14
Oct ’25US$53.13
US$55.95
+5.3%
16.7%US$76.00US$45.00n/a15
Sep ’25US$47.37
US$55.95
+18.1%
16.7%US$76.00US$45.00n/a15
Aug ’25US$44.02
US$63.50
+44.3%
17.3%US$90.00US$45.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$45.97
US$67.14
+46.1%
14.6%US$90.00US$55.00n/a14
Jun ’25US$46.46
US$67.14
+44.5%
14.6%US$90.00US$55.00n/a14
May ’25US$60.95
US$78.95
+29.5%
10.5%US$97.00US$60.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$67.99
US$80.69
+18.7%
9.9%US$97.00US$65.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$69.94
US$82.00
+17.2%
10.9%US$97.00US$65.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$75.70
US$80.67
+6.6%
11.9%US$97.00US$65.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$76.23
US$78.38
+2.8%
12.1%US$100.00US$65.00US$41.0716
Dec ’24US$67.66
US$77.63
+14.7%
12.1%US$100.00US$65.00US$49.8316
Nov ’24US$65.27
US$88.69
+35.9%
12.8%US$114.00US$70.00US$55.2616
Oct ’24US$68.22
US$92.27
+35.2%
10.9%US$114.00US$75.00US$53.1315
Sep ’24US$77.15
US$92.27
+19.6%
10.9%US$114.00US$75.00US$47.3715
Aug ’24US$81.31
US$91.07
+12.0%
12.2%US$114.00US$77.00US$44.0215
Jul ’24US$73.83
US$90.60
+22.7%
11.7%US$114.00US$77.00US$45.9715
Jun ’24US$68.72
US$92.64
+34.8%
10.6%US$114.00US$77.00US$46.4614
May ’24US$74.81
US$94.57
+26.4%
9.6%US$116.00US$80.00US$60.9514
Apr ’24US$74.93
US$96.57
+28.9%
7.2%US$116.00US$85.00US$67.9914
Mar ’24US$85.96
US$95.50
+11.1%
8.6%US$116.00US$80.00US$69.9414
Feb ’24US$93.55
US$95.87
+2.5%
11.5%US$127.00US$82.00US$75.7015
Jan ’24US$82.31
US$95.07
+15.5%
12.4%US$127.00US$80.00US$76.2314
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
US$57.16
Fair Value
31.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/30 23:24
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/29
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Papa John's International, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Todd BrooksBenchmark Company
Andrew StrelzikBMO Capital Markets Equity Research